Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Argentina Grain Exports Could Surge After Tax Reform
Production boost: Eliminating Argentina’s agricultural export taxes could lift grain output 10.1% to 182.6 million tonnes by 2036. Export growth: Annual agricultural exports are projected to rise by 14.1 million tonnes, adding about $6.4 billion in export revenue. Crop drivers: Soybeans and corn would account for most of the production and export gains, supported by…
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Ukrainian Rapeseed Meal Exports Pivot to China
Bullish: Record Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports of 494,000 tonnes in 2025/26 (July–March), up 2.4 times year-on-year, supported by strong Chinese demand and improved domestic crushing margins. Bearish: Sustainability of current flows is at risk as EU demand has collapsed by 49% and Ukraine faces intensifying competition from Canadian, Indian, and Russian rapeseed meal in the…
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Russian sunflower oil export duty slashed 71% in May
Export duty cut: Russia slashes sunflower oil export duty by 71% in May, from 16,222.4 to 4,650 rubles/tonne. Meal duty removal: Sunflower meal export duty drops to zero from 749.6 rubles/tonne, boosting crushing margins. Price dynamics: Indicative sunflower oil price rises to $1,291.8/tonne while sunflower meal falls to $196.1/tonne. Market impact: Lower duties likely lift…
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Ukrainian Sunflower Seed Prices Rally on Oil Demand
Bullish: Ukrainian sunflower seed prices climbed to UAH 31,300–32,500/t CPT on the back of stronger sunflower oil values at ports. Bullish: Domestic sunflower oil bids increased to USD 1,335–1,350/t FCA, with isolated trades at USD 1,360/t FCA, signalling robust crush margins. Bullish: Reluctant farmer and trader selling is tightening nearby availability, underpinning the upward price…
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Kazakhstan Wheat Prices Reach 95,000-100,000 Tenge/MT
Firm domestic prices: Grade 3 milling wheat rose from 90–95,000 tenge/MT in January to 95,000–100,000 tenge/MT by April 2026 on tight farm selling and logistics issues. Policy-driven margin squeeze: Higher VAT and altered refund rules, plus tenge appreciation, sharply reduced export margins and new deal flow. Constrained export flows: Reduced competitiveness is likely to limit…
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Kazakhstan Feed Meal Exports to China Surge 137%
Trade Expansion: Shandong Hi-Speed is in talks with Kazakhstan’s Food Contract Corporation to significantly scale up grain and feed meal imports, including potential forward financing. Export Surge: Kazakhstan’s feed meal exports to China jumped 137% year-on-year in Sep–Feb 2025/26, reinforcing China’s role as the dominant buyer. Strategic Shift: Growing eastbound flows may ease competition in…
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Ukrainian sunflower oil prices up 5.6% in 2026
Price Gain: Refined bottled sunflower oil prices in Ukraine have risen 5.6% since the start of 2026. Market Signal: The increase points to early-year tightening in domestic supply or firmer demand within the Black Sea sunflower oil sector. Export Support: Higher Ukrainian domestic prices could underpin export quotations from the world’s leading sunflower oil supplier.…
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Tunisia Feed Barley Tender: 25,000t at $265.45/tonne
Tunisia’s grain agency (ODC) bought 25,000 tonnes of feed barley via Ameropa at $265.45/tonne C&F. Single-shipment delivery window from May 15 to June 20 with flexible origin terms. Neutral impact for Black Sea suppliers, but the deal sets a benchmark for regional export competitiveness. Tunisia Feed Barley Tender Overview The Tunisian Grain Agency (ODC) has…
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Russian sunflower oil export benchmarks up 10%
Russia raises sunflower oil export price benchmark by 10%, from 82,500 to 90,750 rubles/ton, increasing duty costs for exporters. Sunflower meal base export price also climbs 10%, from 15,875 to 17,463 rubles/ton, directly lifting formula-based export duties. Higher export duties are bearish for Russian exporters, potentially slowing shipments and pressuring Black Sea competitiveness amid strong…
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Ukrainian Feed Corn Prices Surge Amid Export Rally
Bullish: Ukrainian feed corn rose 100–300 UAH/t this week on strong domestic and export demand, lifting most prices to 9,300–10,000 UAH/t CPT and up to 10,900 UAH/t CPT in the south. Bullish: Tight farmer selling and limited spot availability are constraining supply, reinforcing a firm price outlook if export momentum persists. Bullish: Southern region premiums…