Category: Rapeseeds

Policy change: Ukraine has simplified export duty exemptions for domestically-produced rapeseed and soybeans via an automated State Registration Service system. Timing: Exemptions will cover current marketing year production plus previous year carryover starting from the 2026/27 marketing year. Market impact: Reduced bureaucracy is neutral to mildly bullish for Ukrainian rapeseed competitiveness and could encourage modest…

Record Output: Belarus rapeseed production forecast at 1.1 million tons in 2026, up 15.8% year-on-year. Area & Yield Gains: Planted area seen rising to 490,000 ha with yields at 22.5 c/ha, both higher than 2025 levels. Data Divergence: Belstat’s 2025 production estimate (910,300 tons) trails USDA figures, creating baseline uncertainty. Price Pressure Risk: Higher regional…

Bullish: New-crop Ukrainian rapeseed export prices strengthened to USD 590-600/t on CPT-port and DAP-western border terms, supported by tight European supply and firm demand. Bearish: Domestic price growth remains limited by adequate raw material availability, slow trading activity, and ongoing security risks that constrain port-based demand. Ukrainian New-Crop Rapeseed Price Rally New-crop rapeseed prices on…

EU rapeseed prices surge: Weather-related yield concerns and strong global oilseed markets have pushed EU new-crop rapeseed prices sharply higher over the past five months. Lower yields despite higher output: EU 2026 rapeseed production is forecast at 20.88 mln t, with average yields seen 2–3% below last year at 3.26 t/ha, despite area gains in…

Exports undershoot: March rapeseed and canola exports from seven key suppliers totaled 1.75 million tonnes, slipping below expectations and prior-year volumes. Black Sea weakness: Ukraine’s 2025/26 rapeseed exports plunged 42% year-on-year to 1.71 million tonnes, reducing Black Sea presence in global trade flows. High stocks: Canadian and Australian inventories remain elevated at 10 million tonnes and 3.7 million tonnes…

Record Output: Global rapeseed and canola meal production is projected at an all-time high of 47.3 million tonnes in 2025/26, up 1.8 million tonnes year-on-year and well above the 5-year average. EU Demand Strength: EU-27 rapeseed meal consumption climbs to 7.8 million tonnes in Oct–Mar 2025/26 (+0.9 million tonnes YoY), underpinned by stronger domestic supply…

Euronext Breaks €500/t: Rapeseed futures consolidated above €500/t, signaling strong bullish momentum. Upside Target €540–550/t: Analysts see prices potentially rising a further 8–10% during May–July. Energy Market Support: Higher crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions are lifting the broader oilseed complex. Spot Favored Over Forwards: In a rising market, analysts caution against aggressive forward…

Bullish: Record Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports of 494,000 tonnes in 2025/26 (July–March), up 2.4 times year-on-year, supported by strong Chinese demand and improved domestic crushing margins. Bearish: Sustainability of current flows is at risk as EU demand has collapsed by 49% and Ukraine faces intensifying competition from Canadian, Indian, and Russian rapeseed meal in the…

Export Surge: Combined rapeseed and canola shipments from Canada, Australia, and Ukraine hit 1.77 million tonnes in February 2026, the highest since April 2025. Black Sea Strength: Ukraine’s role as a top-3 exporter underlines the Black Sea region’s continued importance in global rapeseed trade. Price Outlook: Elevated export pace is neutral to mildly bullish for…

Bullish: Record EU rapeseed production alongside tightening global export availability, particularly from Canada, is supportive for new crop rapeseed prices and Black Sea exporters. Bearish: Larger EU rapeseed stocks and record regional production signal comfortable local supply, partially offsetting global supply concerns. EU Rapeseed Production Outlook EU rapeseed production in 2026/27 is forecast to reach…