Category: Wheat

Brazil imports rising: Wheat imports projected at 7–8 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from 6.87 million tonnes in 2025, reaching the highest level since 2013. Domestic output falling: Brazilian wheat production expected to drop by nearly 2 million tonnes to just over 6 million tonnes on El Niño risks and higher costs. Shift from Argentina:…

Regulatory Change: Indonesia’s updated phytosanitary requirements for Ukrainian wheat take effect June 1. Operational Impact: New documentation and prior shipment notification rules raise administrative complexity and potential costs. Market View: Neutral to slightly bearish for Ukrainian wheat exports, with limited spillover to broader Black Sea markets. Indonesia Updates Phytosanitary Standards for Ukrainian Wheat The State…

Bearish pricing: Ukrainian feed wheat port prices fell by USD 1-2/ton on subdued trading activity. Weak demand: Buyers are cautious as old-crop and new-crop prices converge ahead of harvest. Pre-harvest pressure: Anticipated farmer selling could extend downward price momentum into the new marketing year. Broader softness: Declines are aligned with weakness in adjacent milling wheat and…

Neutral to marginally bearish: SovEcon raised Russia’s 2026 wheat harvest forecast to 90.3 million tonnes on strong moisture reserves, implying robust export availability and mild downside pressure on global wheat prices. Supportive for Black Sea competitiveness: Higher yields of 2.2 t/ha and no major weather threats so far enhance Russia’s position in global wheat trade…

Bearish for Russian sellers: Deep-sea port prices for 12.5% protein wheat fell to RUB 15,600/tonne by May 20, the lowest in four months and 8% below last year. Currency pressure: A nearly 10% year-to-date ruble appreciation, including 3.2% last week, is squeezing ruble-denominated export margins despite slightly higher FOB prices. Weak selling interest: Producers are…

Wheat exports ease: Ukraine shipped 12.271 million tonnes of wheat as of May 25 in the 2025/26 season, down 17% from 14.803 million tonnes a year earlier. Grain flows slower overall: Total grain and legume exports reached 32.787 million tonnes, about 14% below last season’s 38.183 million tonnes. May volumes soften: May exports totaled 2.589…

Operational milestone: Rodina Agrofirm completed spring sowing on 50,000 ha in Akmola Oblast, becoming the first in the region to finish the 2026 harvest campaign fieldwork. Wheat-heavy structure: Wheat accounts for 30,343 ha (about 61% of total area), underscoring continued producer confidence in grain markets. Efficient execution: The sowing campaign began on May 11 and…

Market Access: Germany secures approval to export wheat to Indonesia starting June 2025 via a new plant safety agreement. Demand Potential: Indonesia’s sizable annual wheat imports of around 11 million tonnes offer meaningful volume opportunities for German exporters. Sector Support: Expanded third-country exports help underpin Germany’s grain sector amid stable or declining domestic wheat consumption.…

Argentina will cut its wheat export tax from 7.5% to 5.5% starting June 2025, improving its competitiveness in global wheat markets. Proposed soybean export tax cuts of 0.25–0.5 percentage points from January 2027 remain conditional on fiscal performance. The move signals President Milei’s push to stimulate agricultural exports, potentially intensifying competition in shared demand markets…

Asian demand recovery: Ukrainian wheat exports are rebounding as Asian importers resume active purchasing for new season supplies. US output decline: US wheat production is forecast to fall from 54 million tons to 42 million tons amid deteriorating crop conditions and moisture deficits. Weather risks in EU: Emerging moisture shortages in France are increasing concerns…