Category: Wheat

Bullish: Kazakhstan–Turkey agricultural trade rose 25% in 2025 to $360 million, supported by expanded wheat, lentil, and oilseed flows. Bullish: Rail freight volumes between the two countries increased 35% to 6.4 million tonnes, improving supply reliability. Bullish: Trans-Caspian Middle Corridor delivery times shortened to 13 days, enhancing Kazakhstan’s export competitiveness. Bullish: Turkey’s $390 million in…

Production Surge: Turkey’s 2026/27 wheat output is forecast to jump 20% year-on-year to 19.8 million tonnes on better rainfall and an eight-year high in planted area. Import Demand Eases: Higher domestic availability is expected to cut Turkey’s wheat imports by 10% to 6.5 million tonnes, softening demand in Black Sea export channels. Flour Exports Under…

Kazakhstan’s wheat stocks slipped 2% year-on-year to 10.8 million tons as of April 1, 2026, signaling slightly tighter supply. Milling wheat dominates reserves at 9.22 million tons (around 85% of total wheat), supporting quality-focused export demand. Feed wheat remains relatively tight at about 504 thousand tons, which could underpin regional feed grain prices. Overall grain…

USDA trims Ukrainian exports: 2025/26 wheat export forecast cut by 1.0 million tons to 12.5 million, 20.6% below 2024/25 levels. Russian capacity grows: Russia’s export potential raised to 44.5 million tons, adding regional supply cushion and limiting upside price risk. Higher Ukrainian stocks: Carry-over stocks revised up to 3.93 million tons, easing export urgency but pressuring domestic prices. Global…

Marginally supportive: Expana raised its 2026/27 EU soft wheat forecast to 128.7 million tonnes, reflecting generally favorable March weather. Structurally bearish: Wheat output for 2026/27 remains 8.4 million tonnes below the current 2025/26 forecast, a year-on-year decline of 6.1%. Downside risk: Reduced fertilizer application and potential spring precipitation deficits could further constrain EU grain yields.…

Wheat prices at Greater Odessa ports declined by USD 1-3/t amid weakness on global exchanges. Class 2 and Class 3 wheat prices have converged, signaling weak demand and limited quality differentiation. Buyers are focused on fulfilling existing contracts, while farmers are withholding sales in hopes of a price recovery. Near-term market liquidity is expected to…

Prices Stable: Ukrainian wheat prices held steady last week with only marginal revisions from processors. Farmer Sales Limited: Producers restricted sales volumes, expecting further price appreciation and supporting current price floors. Narrow Port Spreads: A tight USD 3–8/t spread between milling and feed wheat at ports signals balanced quality demand. Volatility Risk: Export market fluctuations…

Deal Secured: Thai importers purchased around 60,000 tonnes of feed wheat at $259.95/tonne C&F for June delivery. Australian Origin Likely: The contract was awarded to operator SVN, with traders expecting the wheat to be sourced from Australia. Price Benchmark: The tender result sets a competitive C&F benchmark for Asian feed wheat imports. Regional Competition: Neutral…

Forecast Upgrade: Kazakhstan raised its 2025/26 durum wheat export forecast by 24% to 460,000 tonnes on strong first-half shipments. Stronger Demand: First-half exports climbed 31% year-on-year to 275,600 tonnes, with Italy remaining the dominant buyer. Diversifying Buyers: New markets including Tunisia, Portugal, Afghanistan, and Belgium are helping reduce export concentration risk. Mixed Regional Flows: Turkey…