Category: Wheat

Tariff shift: Morocco plans to lift the 35% soft wheat import tariff from August 1, once 80% of the 1.5 MMT domestic harvest is completed by July 15. Reserve build: ONICL will pay storage premiums to traders to support wheat stockpiling through January 2027. Lower import needs: USDA projects Morocco’s 2026/27 wheat imports at 4…

Partial fill: Jordan secured 60,000 tons of milling wheat, only half of the 120,000 tons originally tendered. Tight price spread: Winning and competing offers clustered between $276 and $282/MT C&F, reflecting a competitive global wheat market. Slightly bearish tone: Jordan’s decision to leave 50% uncovered may signal expectations of softer prices ahead, pressuring Black Sea…

Stable domestic prices: Ukrainian wheat values held steady as limited farmer selling and strong buyer demand supported the market. Export softness: Port prices slipped by USD 2–3/t as weaker global demand and Black Sea competition pressured export values. Margin squeeze risk: The gap between firm inland prices and softer port values may compress exporters’ origination…

High completion rate: Ukraine has sown 97% of its planned spring grain and legume area, signaling strong operational capacity despite conflict. Oilseeds on track: Sunflower and soybean sowing are 95% and 96% complete, respectively, supporting stable oilseed supply prospects. Year-on-year expansion: Spring crop area is up by 342,000 hectares versus the same stage in 2023,…

Brazil imports rising: Wheat imports projected at 7–8 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from 6.87 million tonnes in 2025, reaching the highest level since 2013. Domestic output falling: Brazilian wheat production expected to drop by nearly 2 million tonnes to just over 6 million tonnes on El Niño risks and higher costs. Shift from Argentina:…

Regulatory Change: Indonesia’s updated phytosanitary requirements for Ukrainian wheat take effect June 1. Operational Impact: New documentation and prior shipment notification rules raise administrative complexity and potential costs. Market View: Neutral to slightly bearish for Ukrainian wheat exports, with limited spillover to broader Black Sea markets. Indonesia Updates Phytosanitary Standards for Ukrainian Wheat The State…

Bearish pricing: Ukrainian feed wheat port prices fell by USD 1-2/ton on subdued trading activity. Weak demand: Buyers are cautious as old-crop and new-crop prices converge ahead of harvest. Pre-harvest pressure: Anticipated farmer selling could extend downward price momentum into the new marketing year. Broader softness: Declines are aligned with weakness in adjacent milling wheat and…

Neutral to marginally bearish: SovEcon raised Russia’s 2026 wheat harvest forecast to 90.3 million tonnes on strong moisture reserves, implying robust export availability and mild downside pressure on global wheat prices. Supportive for Black Sea competitiveness: Higher yields of 2.2 t/ha and no major weather threats so far enhance Russia’s position in global wheat trade…

Bearish for Russian sellers: Deep-sea port prices for 12.5% protein wheat fell to RUB 15,600/tonne by May 20, the lowest in four months and 8% below last year. Currency pressure: A nearly 10% year-to-date ruble appreciation, including 3.2% last week, is squeezing ruble-denominated export margins despite slightly higher FOB prices. Weak selling interest: Producers are…

Wheat exports ease: Ukraine shipped 12.271 million tonnes of wheat as of May 25 in the 2025/26 season, down 17% from 14.803 million tonnes a year earlier. Grain flows slower overall: Total grain and legume exports reached 32.787 million tonnes, about 14% below last season’s 38.183 million tonnes. May volumes soften: May exports totaled 2.589…