- Wheat exports ease: Ukraine shipped 12.271 million tonnes of wheat as of May 25 in the 2025/26 season, down 17% from 14.803 million tonnes a year earlier.
- Grain flows slower overall: Total grain and legume exports reached 32.787 million tonnes, about 14% below last season’s 38.183 million tonnes.
- May volumes soften: May exports totaled 2.589 million tonnes, slightly under May 2024’s 2.875 million tonnes.
- Commodity mix shifts: Corn remains dominant at 18.594 million tonnes, with barley and rye exports significantly below last year’s levels.
- Price impact: Lower Ukrainian availability is neutral to bullish for Black Sea wheat prices in the near term as demand may shift toward Russian and EU origins.
Market Update
Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, citing State Customs Service data, reports that wheat exports surpassed 12 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year as of May 25. Wheat shipments totaled 12.271 million tonnes, a notable decline from the 14.803 million tonnes exported by the same point in the 2024/25 season.
Total grain and leguminous crop exports since the start of the current marketing year reached 32.787 million tonnes, with May contributing 2.589 million tonnes. This lags last year’s pace, when exports hit 38.183 million tonnes by May 30, including 2.875 million tonnes shipped in May alone.
Export Volumes by Commodity
| Commodity | 2025/26 Exports (million tonnes) |
2024/25 Exports (million tonnes) |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 12.271 | 14.803 |
| Total Grain & Legumes | 32.787 | 38.183 |
| Corn | 18.594 | 20.471 |
| Barley | 1.482 | 2.305 |
| Rye (thousand tonnes) | 0.2 | 10.8 |
| Product | 2025/26 Exports (thousand tonnes) |
2024/25 Exports (thousand tonnes) |
|---|---|---|
| Total Flour | 56.3 | 64.6 |
| Wheat Flour | 54.8 | 60.3 |
Monthly Export Comparison
| Period | Total Exports in May (million tonnes) |
|---|---|
| May 2025 | 2.589 |
| May 2024 | 2.875 |
Market Analysis
The year-on-year decline in Ukrainian wheat exports underscores tightening availabilities from the Black Sea region, a factor that can lend underlying support to regional wheat values. The 17% reduction in wheat shipments and 14% drop in total grain exports may reflect a mix of smaller domestic supplies, stronger internal consumption, or infrastructure and logistical constraints reducing export capacity.
If this slower export pace persists into the remainder of the marketing year, import demand could increasingly pivot toward Russian and, to a lesser extent, EU origins. This shift would likely support regional freight rates and basis levels as buyers diversify coverage. Overall, the current export dynamics are viewed as neutral to bullish for Black Sea wheat prices in the near term.
Source: Market Data
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