- Record Corn Output: Argentina’s 2025/26 corn production forecast raised to a record 64 million tonnes, adding 3 million tonnes to global supply.
- Strong Soybean Yields: Soybean forecast lifted to 50.1 million tonnes on exceptional average yields of 32.8 c/ha, the highest in six seasons.
- Export Competition: Larger Argentine corn and soy crops are neutral to bearish for Black Sea corn exporters as export competition and FOB price pressure increase into late 2025.
- Harvest Progress: Corn harvest is 32.9% complete and soybean harvest 74.7% complete, confirming strong in-field performance.
Argentina Corn & Soybean Production Update
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has upgraded its outlook for Argentina’s 2025/26 corn crop, raising the production estimate by 3 million tonnes to a record 64 million tonnes. The revision reflects a larger-than-expected sown area across key producing regions. As of May 21, corn harvesting has reached 32.9% of the planned area, confirming robust yield performance so far.
At the same time, the exchange increased its soybean production forecast to 50.1 million tonnes, up from 48.6 million tonnes previously. The upgrade is driven by exceptional yields, averaging 32.8 centners per hectare, the strongest result in the last six seasons. Soybean harvesting has progressed to 74.7% of the planted area, underlining the overall strength of Argentina’s current oilseed campaign.
Key Production Metrics
| Commodity | Season | Production Forecast (mln t) | Revision vs Previous (mln t) | Harvest Progress (%) | Average Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 2025/26 | 64.0 | +3.0 | 32.9 | n/a |
| Soybeans | 2025/26 | 50.1 | +1.5 | 74.7 | 32.8 c/ha |
Market Impact and Black Sea Corn Outlook
The record-sized Argentine corn crop and upgraded soybean harvest are set to increase global grain and oilseed availability through the second half of 2025. For corn, the additional 3 million tonnes will weigh on international balance sheets and could limit upside price momentum during the main Argentine export window.
For Black Sea corn exporters, the development is neutral to bearish. Greater Argentine supply into key South American and Asian destinations will likely heighten competition and pressure FOB values, particularly if Argentine exporters are aggressive on pricing. The degree of impact will hinge on freight spreads, currency movements, and relative quality, but the competitive landscape for Black Sea origin corn is set to tighten from mid‑2025 onward.
Source: Market Data
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