- Tariff shift: Morocco plans to lift the 35% soft wheat import tariff from August 1, once 80% of the 1.5 MMT domestic harvest is completed by July 15.
- Reserve build: ONICL will pay storage premiums to traders to support wheat stockpiling through January 2027.
- Lower import needs: USDA projects Morocco’s 2026/27 wheat imports at 4 MMT, 40% below the current season, signaling stronger domestic supply and reduced structural demand.
- Black Sea demand: Reopening of Morocco’s market could be supportive for Black Sea wheat, though overall import volumes are expected to decline.
Morocco to Lift Soft Wheat Import Tariff
Morocco intends to remove the 35% import tariff on soft wheat from August 1, according to industry representatives including Moulay Abdelkader Alaoui of the National Federation of Flour Mills (FNM) and Omar Yacoubi of the Federation of Grain Traders (FNCL). The tariff, introduced on June 1, was designed to slow imports and prioritize marketing of the domestic harvest.
The tariff suspension is conditional on Morocco harvesting at least 80% of its planned 1.5 million tonnes of local wheat by July 15. This threshold aims to ensure sufficient domestic procurement before the market reopens to international suppliers.
Storage Incentives and Import Outlook
To reinforce food security and stabilize supplies, the Moroccan Grain Agency (ONICL) will provide financial incentives for traders to store domestically produced wheat. These storage premiums are intended to support both short- and long-term stockholding, with reserve accumulation targeted through January 2027.
The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts Morocco’s total wheat imports, including durum, at 4 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year. This represents a 40% decline versus current season expectations, reflecting improved domestic production and a structurally lower reliance on foreign wheat.
| Indicator | Volume | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Planned 2024/25 domestic wheat harvest | 1.5 million tonnes | Soft wheat; target for current season |
| Harvest completion threshold for tariff removal | 80% of 1.5 MMT | Must be achieved by July 15 |
| Projected wheat imports 2026/27 | 4 million tonnes | USDA forecast, including durum wheat |
| Change vs current season imports | -40% | Indicates structurally lower import demand |
| Storage incentive horizon | Through January 2027 | ONICL storage premium program |
Market Impact and Black Sea Wheat Outlook
The anticipated lifting of Morocco’s soft wheat import tariff in August is potentially bullish for Black Sea wheat, particularly Russian and Ukrainian origins, as a key North African buyer returns to the international market. Renewed Moroccan demand could support prices and competition for available export supplies.
However, USDA’s projection of a 40% decline in Morocco’s wheat imports by 2026/27 highlights a medium-term shift toward greater domestic self-sufficiency. This could cap longer-term import demand growth for Black Sea exporters, even if near-term flows improve once the tariff is lifted.
Traders and exporters should monitor the July 15 harvest threshold closely. Any delay in reaching the 80% completion target could postpone tariff removal, temporarily tightening regional supply and potentially adding short-term volatility to Black Sea and Mediterranean wheat markets.
Source: Market Data
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