Category: Wheat

Bullish: Ukrainian wheat prices are rising on strong domestic processing demand, tight grain supply, and higher export values. Bearish: Elevated production costs and weak flour demand are pressuring processors’ margins and could limit further price upside. Ukrainian Wheat Prices Rise on Strong Domestic Demand and Tight Supply Market Update The Ukrainian wheat market posted firm…

India resumes wheat exports after four years, with ITC loading 22,000 tonnes at Kandla port for the UAE at around $275/tonne FOB. Indian wheat is at least $20/tonne more expensive than Black Sea and Australian wheat on a delivered basis, restricting demand to buyers with urgent short-term needs. Black Sea wheat remains competitively priced at…

Bullish: SovEcon raised Russian wheat export forecasts to 47.4 MT in 2025/26 and 45.2 MT in 2026/27 amid strong demand from Egypt and Turkey. Bullish: March wheat exports reached 4.7 MT, near the record 4.8 MT, highlighting tight global supply and inelastic demand. Bullish: Elevated energy and fertilizer costs and low importer inventories support a…

Production Down: Australia’s 2026/27 wheat harvest is forecast at 29 million tonnes, a 19% year-on-year decline. Exports Tighten: Wheat exports are projected to fall to 23.5 million tonnes from 26 million tonnes, reducing global seaborne supply. Costs Rising: Diesel and nitrogen fertilizer prices have roughly doubled, pressuring farm margins and planted area. Weather Risk: El…

Neutral–Bullish Demand: Kazakhstan raised its 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 8 million tons, with 75% already shipped and strong pull from Central Asian buyers. Regional Concentration: 76.3% of exports go to Central Asia, led by Uzbekistan at 59.5%, limiting wider Black Sea price impact but tightening regional supply later in the marketing year. Trade Reorientation:…

Wheat exports up 6%: EU wheat shipments reached 19.28 million tonnes, underscoring strong competitiveness in global markets. Barley shipments jump 80%: Barley exports surged to 7.95 million tonnes, highlighting robust demand for EU feed grains. Corn exports decline: EU corn shipments fell 23% to 1.5 million tonnes, potentially opening space for Black Sea exporters. Total grain exports +16%:…

Russian exports up: Wheat shipments to South Korea reached ~210,000 tonnes in 2025/26 MY (+14% YoY), the highest since 2017/18 MY and more than double the five-year average. Market share gains: Russia’s share in South Korean wheat imports climbed to 6.2% this season from 1.5% in 2023/24 MY, driven by feed wheat competitiveness. Demand flat:…

Bullish: Ukrainian wheat prices are rising on tight farmer supply, strong domestic demand, and elevated fuel and logistics costs. Bearish: Subdued trader demand and export route volatility are limiting further upside in port-based export prices. Domestic: Class 2 wheat traded at UAH 9,700–11,000/t CPT; feed wheat at UAH 9,000–10,400/t CPT amid stable weekly ranges. Export:…

Firm domestic prices: Grade 3 milling wheat rose from 90–95,000 tenge/MT in January to 95,000–100,000 tenge/MT by April 2026 on tight farm selling and logistics issues. Policy-driven margin squeeze: Higher VAT and altered refund rules, plus tenge appreciation, sharply reduced export margins and new deal flow. Constrained export flows: Reduced competitiveness is likely to limit…

French wheat conditions ease slightly: Winter wheat ratings slipped to 83% good/excellent, down 1 point week-on-week but still well above 74% a year ago. Barley remains strong: Winter barley held at 81% good/excellent, while spring barley stayed very strong at 92%, sharply higher than last year’s 84%. Corn planting lags badly: Only 31% of corn…