Category: Wheat

Neutral–Bullish Demand: Kazakhstan raised its 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 8 million tons, with 75% already shipped and strong pull from Central Asian buyers. Regional Concentration: 76.3% of exports go to Central Asia, led by Uzbekistan at 59.5%, limiting wider Black Sea price impact but tightening regional supply later in the marketing year. Trade Reorientation:…

Wheat exports up 6%: EU wheat shipments reached 19.28 million tonnes, underscoring strong competitiveness in global markets. Barley shipments jump 80%: Barley exports surged to 7.95 million tonnes, highlighting robust demand for EU feed grains. Corn exports decline: EU corn shipments fell 23% to 1.5 million tonnes, potentially opening space for Black Sea exporters. Total grain exports +16%:…

Russian exports up: Wheat shipments to South Korea reached ~210,000 tonnes in 2025/26 MY (+14% YoY), the highest since 2017/18 MY and more than double the five-year average. Market share gains: Russia’s share in South Korean wheat imports climbed to 6.2% this season from 1.5% in 2023/24 MY, driven by feed wheat competitiveness. Demand flat:…

Bullish: Ukrainian wheat prices are rising on tight farmer supply, strong domestic demand, and elevated fuel and logistics costs. Bearish: Subdued trader demand and export route volatility are limiting further upside in port-based export prices. Domestic: Class 2 wheat traded at UAH 9,700–11,000/t CPT; feed wheat at UAH 9,000–10,400/t CPT amid stable weekly ranges. Export:…

Firm domestic prices: Grade 3 milling wheat rose from 90–95,000 tenge/MT in January to 95,000–100,000 tenge/MT by April 2026 on tight farm selling and logistics issues. Policy-driven margin squeeze: Higher VAT and altered refund rules, plus tenge appreciation, sharply reduced export margins and new deal flow. Constrained export flows: Reduced competitiveness is likely to limit…

French wheat conditions ease slightly: Winter wheat ratings slipped to 83% good/excellent, down 1 point week-on-week but still well above 74% a year ago. Barley remains strong: Winter barley held at 81% good/excellent, while spring barley stayed very strong at 92%, sharply higher than last year’s 84%. Corn planting lags badly: Only 31% of corn…

Ukrainian wheat prices: Small-port CPT now at $225–230/t, with forecasts pointing to $228–234/t next week on stronger demand. Demand drivers: Renewed buying interest from Egypt and Algeria is reviving the market after a post-holiday slowdown. Global weather risks: Poor US winter wheat ratings (30% good/excellent vs. 45–50% average) and a 50% moisture deficit in France…

Ukrainian feed wheat export prices in ports edged up by around USD 1/t, reaching USD 210-218/t CPT Odessa and USD 209-217/t CPT Danube as of April 23. Tight producer supply and firm feed corn prices are supporting a neutral to slightly bullish tone in the feed wheat market. Hryvnia-denominated prices rose by UAH 100-150/t to…

SovEcon raised its 2024 Russian wheat harvest forecast to 89.7 million tonnes, up 2.1 million tonnes from 87.6 million tonnes. Favorable weather and stronger winter wheat prospects are the main drivers behind the upward revision. Late April weather remains a risk, with temperatures forecast 4–6°C below normal, though still above freezing. Market sentiment is neutral…

New route established: Kazakhstan successfully shipped over 15,000 tons of wheat to Vietnam in 2025 via a multimodal rail-sea corridor through China. Diversified export corridors: The new route reduces Kazakhstan’s reliance on traditional Black Sea export channels for wheat. Logistics cooperation: Kazakhstan’s JSC NC KTZ and Vietnam Railways agreed to expand freight volumes and enhance…