Category: Wheat

Bullish: Ukrainian wheat prices edged higher on strong domestic demand and limited farmer selling. Bullish: Port prices for both milling and feed wheat firmed, reflecting consistent export market support. Neutral to slightly bullish: Muted trader interest is tempering further upside despite tightening farm supplies. Ukrainian Wheat Market Update The Ukrainian wheat market posted a modest…

Export Forecast Cut: IKAR reduced Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export outlook to 44.5 million tonnes from 46 million tonnes. Margin Pressure: Strong ruble, low global wheat prices, and higher inland logistics costs are squeezing exporter margins. Logistics Shift: Wheat stockpiles have moved inland from key southern export hubs after drought-related production losses. Market Tone: Overall impact…

Domestic support: Iraq set a wheat procurement price of about $534/MT under the national agricultural plan and $381/MT for out-of-plan purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year. Yield thresholds: New yield standards by irrigation type (9,000 kg/ha modern, 7,500 kg/ha conventional, 3,000 kg/ha rainfed) will influence farmer eligibility for government procurement. Seed investment: The government will…

Significant volume secured: Algeria’s OAIC purchased 390,000–420,000 tons of milling wheat, ensuring short-term supply security. Black Sea dominance: Romania and Bulgaria supplied most of the volume, underscoring the region’s price competitiveness in North Africa. Supportive price range: Purchase levels at $268–$270/ton C&F align with firm international wheat values and sustained demand. Seasonal export tailwind: July…

Prices Firming: New-crop milling wheat in Greater Odessa ports rose by USD 2-4/ton week-on-week as of May 6 on strong exporter demand. Grade 2 Strength: Grade 2 wheat bids reached USD 219-227/ton CPT port, outpacing Grade 3 and highlighting preference for higher quality. Farmer Reluctance: Limited farmer selling is tightening domestic supply, supporting a mildly…

Neutral: Russian spring wheat sowing is 81% behind last year, but overall market impact is currently assessed as neutral. Weather Delays: Cold and wet conditions are slowing fieldwork across key Russian growing regions. Stable Harvest Outlook: SovEcon maintains its Russian wheat harvest forecast at 89.7 million tons despite the slow start. Risk Ahead: Prolonged delays…

Bullish: Ukrainian wheat prices are rising on strong domestic processing demand, tight grain supply, and higher export values. Bearish: Elevated production costs and weak flour demand are pressuring processors’ margins and could limit further price upside. Ukrainian Wheat Prices Rise on Strong Domestic Demand and Tight Supply Market Update The Ukrainian wheat market posted firm…

India resumes wheat exports after four years, with ITC loading 22,000 tonnes at Kandla port for the UAE at around $275/tonne FOB. Indian wheat is at least $20/tonne more expensive than Black Sea and Australian wheat on a delivered basis, restricting demand to buyers with urgent short-term needs. Black Sea wheat remains competitively priced at…

Bullish: SovEcon raised Russian wheat export forecasts to 47.4 MT in 2025/26 and 45.2 MT in 2026/27 amid strong demand from Egypt and Turkey. Bullish: March wheat exports reached 4.7 MT, near the record 4.8 MT, highlighting tight global supply and inelastic demand. Bullish: Elevated energy and fertilizer costs and low importer inventories support a…

Production Down: Australia’s 2026/27 wheat harvest is forecast at 29 million tonnes, a 19% year-on-year decline. Exports Tighten: Wheat exports are projected to fall to 23.5 million tonnes from 26 million tonnes, reducing global seaborne supply. Costs Rising: Diesel and nitrogen fertilizer prices have roughly doubled, pressuring farm margins and planted area. Weather Risk: El…