Category: Wheat

Bullish: Russian wheat FOB prices have rallied to around $240/t, the highest level since August 2025, supported by strong import demand and ruble weakness. Bullish: SovEcon upgraded export forecasts for both the current and next seasons, underpinned by an upward revision to the 2026 wheat harvest estimate. Bullish: Market sentiment has shifted from expectations of…

Class 2 milling wheat prices edged higher to USD 217-227/t SRT-port at Greater Odessa, up USD 1-2/t week-on-week. Farmer selling remains tight as producers hold back volumes on expectations of stronger pricing and rising FOB levels. Higher logistics costs are adding support to domestic wheat prices, despite relatively stable hryvnia values. Market sentiment is bullish…

Russian wheat prices stable: 12.5% protein FOB values hold at $238-242/ton, sustaining the Iranian crisis-driven price surge. Exports revised higher: March wheat shipments now estimated at 4.2-4.6 million tonnes, near record levels for the month. Market tone: Neutral to bullish as firm prices coexist with strong export momentum and solid global demand. Logistics: High port…

Bearish for Russian wheat exports: Export duty jumps from RUB 135.4/ton to RUB 516.5/ton from March 25, sharply reducing competitiveness. Neutral on wheat pricing benchmark: Indicative wheat price remains unchanged at $231.5/ton, despite the duty hike. Supportive for barley and corn exports: Barley and corn export duties stay at zero, potentially redirecting Black Sea export…

Bullish: Limited export availability from key origins and ongoing logistical bottlenecks are underpinning prices despite weak demand. Bearish: Slow import demand in key destinations and buyer resistance to higher offers are capping any significant price rally. Global Wheat Market Overview International wheat markets are trading in a relatively narrow range as exporters balance tighter nearby…

Forecast Upgrade: SovEcon raised Russia’s 2026 wheat harvest outlook to 87.6 million tons, up 1.7 million tons from the previous estimate. Winter Wheat Strength: Winter wheat projections increased to 64.6 million tons on higher acreage and better yield expectations, while spring wheat remains at 23 million tons. Weather Risk: Rostov Region faces below-average soil moisture,…

Record exports: Kazakhstan’s Grain Union now projects total wheat and flour exports at a record 13 million tonnes for 2025/26 MY, with wheat alone seen at 7.8 million tonnes. Front‑loaded shipments: Wheat exports have already reached 5.14 million tonnes in the first five months—around 66% of the full‑season target—signaling an aggressive early export pace. Market…

Forward demand: Ukrainian traders are actively contracting 2026 wheat at relatively strong price levels, supporting early farmer hedging. Price structure: New-crop forward prices sit only slightly below old-crop levels, signaling tight supply expectations and stable export demand. Risk management: Farmers are locking in values above USD 210/ton to secure revenue amid geopolitical and corridor-related risks.…

Russia hits 12-month high: February wheat shipments to South Korea reached 48,700 tonnes, with corn at 51,400 tons, both the strongest volumes since February 2024. Stronger market position: Russia climbed to third place among South Korea’s wheat and corn suppliers, highlighting competitive pricing and stable logistics from the Black Sea region. Growing Asian footprint: Combined…

Domestic supply support: 14,900 tons of milling wheat released to Kazakh millers helps stabilize internal flour and grain markets. Quality-focused allocation: Third-class wheat with 23% gluten dominates sales, ensuring adequate supply for flour producers. Strong feed demand: Poultry farms requested about 200,000 tons of grain, signaling robust domestic feed consumption. Neutral-to-slightly bearish for exports: Higher…