Category: Wheat

Export outlook: Russia’s 2026/27 wheat export potential is preliminarily forecast at 46.5 million tons, up from 44.5 million tons in the current season. Carryover support: Larger-than-expected carryover stocks from sluggish current-season exports are set to boost next year’s export capacity. Currency impact: A weak ruble and unfavorable price conditions are constraining current export activity. Price…

Bullish: Russian wheat exports surged 60% in early May, driven by strong demand from North Africa, especially Egypt and Libya. Bearish: Turkey cut wheat imports by 38%, signaling potential demand risk or increased competition from other Black Sea suppliers. Bullish: New export channels opened for Russian corn and barley, with Iran emerging as a key…

Neutral/Bullish: Kazakhstan’s wheat reserves slipped below 10 million tons to 9.36 million tons, tightening regional supply ahead of new crop and supporting a slightly firmer price tone. Supportive: Limited feed wheat stocks at 475,000 tons may underpin regional feed grain demand, while higher barley and corn reserves provide some buffer against overall supply risks. Regional…

Progress: Kyrgyzstan has completed 90.7% of its spring wheat sowing, the fastest among major grain crops. Scale: Overall spring grain planting has reached 79% of the 519,300-hectare target, with total 2026 agricultural land at 1.25 million hectares. Conditions: Land preparation is 73,900 hectares ahead of last year, signaling favorable fieldwork and potential for higher output.…

Bullish: Ukrainian wheat prices edged higher on strong domestic demand and limited farmer selling. Bullish: Port prices for both milling and feed wheat firmed, reflecting consistent export market support. Neutral to slightly bullish: Muted trader interest is tempering further upside despite tightening farm supplies. Ukrainian Wheat Market Update The Ukrainian wheat market posted a modest…

Export Forecast Cut: IKAR reduced Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export outlook to 44.5 million tonnes from 46 million tonnes. Margin Pressure: Strong ruble, low global wheat prices, and higher inland logistics costs are squeezing exporter margins. Logistics Shift: Wheat stockpiles have moved inland from key southern export hubs after drought-related production losses. Market Tone: Overall impact…

Domestic support: Iraq set a wheat procurement price of about $534/MT under the national agricultural plan and $381/MT for out-of-plan purchases for the 2025/26 marketing year. Yield thresholds: New yield standards by irrigation type (9,000 kg/ha modern, 7,500 kg/ha conventional, 3,000 kg/ha rainfed) will influence farmer eligibility for government procurement. Seed investment: The government will…

Significant volume secured: Algeria’s OAIC purchased 390,000–420,000 tons of milling wheat, ensuring short-term supply security. Black Sea dominance: Romania and Bulgaria supplied most of the volume, underscoring the region’s price competitiveness in North Africa. Supportive price range: Purchase levels at $268–$270/ton C&F align with firm international wheat values and sustained demand. Seasonal export tailwind: July…

Prices Firming: New-crop milling wheat in Greater Odessa ports rose by USD 2-4/ton week-on-week as of May 6 on strong exporter demand. Grade 2 Strength: Grade 2 wheat bids reached USD 219-227/ton CPT port, outpacing Grade 3 and highlighting preference for higher quality. Farmer Reluctance: Limited farmer selling is tightening domestic supply, supporting a mildly…

Neutral: Russian spring wheat sowing is 81% behind last year, but overall market impact is currently assessed as neutral. Weather Delays: Cold and wet conditions are slowing fieldwork across key Russian growing regions. Stable Harvest Outlook: SovEcon maintains its Russian wheat harvest forecast at 89.7 million tons despite the slow start. Risk Ahead: Prolonged delays…