- Bullish: Russian wheat exports surged 60% in early May, driven by strong demand from North Africa, especially Egypt and Libya.
- Bearish: Turkey cut wheat imports by 38%, signaling potential demand risk or increased competition from other Black Sea suppliers.
- Bullish: New export channels opened for Russian corn and barley, with Iran emerging as a key buyer.
- Bearish: Sustained high export pace could pressure FOB Black Sea wheat prices later in the 2024/25 marketing year.
Russian Wheat Export Performance: Early May Snapshot
Russia exported 986,000 tons of wheat between May 1–10, a 60% year-on-year increase, according to data from the Russian Grain Union (RGU). Wheat was shipped to 10 destination countries, compared with 13 over the same period last year, indicating a more concentrated set of trade relationships.
Egypt remained the dominant buyer, taking 291,000 tons of Russian wheat—2.5 times more than a year earlier. Libya more than doubled its intake to 68,000 tons, while Saudi Arabia’s purchases were steady at 66,000 tons. Turkey, by contrast, reduced wheat imports from Russia by 38% to 58,400 tons year-on-year.
Corn and Barley: New Demand from Iran
Corn exports reached 41,800 tons, up 36% compared with last year’s period. Iran accounted for 37,000 tons and Turkey for 4,800 tons—both flows absent in the comparable period a year earlier. Barley exports rose sharply to 22,000 tons from just 100 tons, with all volume destined for Iran, marking a newly established market for Russian barley.
Numerical Overview by Commodity and Destination
| Commodity | Destination | Volume (tons) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | Total (all destinations) | 986,000 | +60% |
| Wheat | Egypt | 291,000 | +150% (2.5x) |
| Wheat | Libya | 68,000 | >100% increase |
| Wheat | Saudi Arabia | 66,000 | Unchanged |
| Wheat | Turkey | 58,400 | -38% |
| Corn | Total | 41,800 | +36% |
| Corn | Iran | 37,000 | New flow |
| Corn | Turkey | 4,800 | New flow |
| Barley | Total (all to Iran) | 22,000 | Up from 100 tons |
Market Implications
The export surge underscores Russia’s competitiveness in North African wheat markets, particularly Egypt, where Russian origins are gaining market share. The concentration into fewer destination countries points to more focused trade relationships, while new demand from Iran for both corn and barley diversifies Russia’s grain export base.
Turkey’s 38% cut in wheat imports may reflect stronger competition from alternative Black Sea suppliers or shifts in Turkish domestic supply and demand. If Russia maintains this strong early-May export pace through the remainder of the 2024/25 marketing year, aggressive selling could weigh on FOB Black Sea wheat prices, especially if global demand growth lags the increase in available export supply.
Source: Market Data
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