- Prices firmer: Ukrainian feed corn export prices rose by USD 1-2/t week-on-week, supported by stable demand and constrained supply.
- Supply tightness: Weather risks, delayed sowing, and production concerns are underpinning a mildly bullish market sentiment.
- Global competitiveness: Ukrainian corn is losing price competitiveness versus Argentine origin, but Argentine dryness is supporting world corn prices.
Ukrainian Feed Corn Price Overview
Ukrainian feed corn export prices continued to edge higher as of May 13, with purchase prices at Greater Odesa ports reported at USD 222-230/t CPT and Danube ports at USD 220-226/t CPT. Both locations registered a week-on-week increase of USD 1-2/t, highlighting a steady upward trend in the market.
| Location | Basis | Price Range (USD/t) | Weekly Change (USD/t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greater Odesa ports | CPT | 222–230 | +1 to +2 |
| Danube ports | CPT | 220–226 | +1 to +2 |
Market Drivers and Fundamentals
The current price support is driven by a combination of firm demand and restricted supply in the Ukrainian corn market. Weather risks for the upcoming harvest, alongside a slower-than-expected sowing campaign compared to last year, are adding to production uncertainty and underpinning valuations. Rising wheat futures are also providing indirect support to corn prices by lifting the broader grains complex.
Despite these supportive domestic fundamentals, Ukrainian corn is gradually losing some of its price competitiveness versus Argentine origin on international markets. However, ongoing dry weather conditions in Argentina are lending support to global corn prices, partially offsetting Ukraine’s disadvantage from a higher outright price level.
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Market Sentiment: Mildly Bullish
The modest yet consistent week-on-week gains underline a mildly bullish sentiment, with traders focused on tight fundamentals and production risks. If sowing delays persist, available supplies could tighten further in the coming months, keeping export prices supported. At the same time, the Argentine weather outlook remains a key variable: prolonged dryness could sustain global price strength, helping Ukrainian corn maintain its role in international trade flows despite reduced price competitiveness.
Source: Market Data
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