- Neutral–Bullish Demand: Kazakhstan raised its 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 8 million tons, with 75% already shipped and strong pull from Central Asian buyers.
- Regional Concentration: 76.3% of exports go to Central Asia, led by Uzbekistan at 59.5%, limiting wider Black Sea price impact but tightening regional supply later in the marketing year.
- Trade Reorientation: Sharp reduction in wheat exports to China is partly offset by a surge in feed meal shipments, indicating a shift in Kazakhstan’s grain trade strategy.
Kazakhstan Wheat Export Forecast Raised to 8 Million Tons
The Grain Union of Kazakhstan has lifted its 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 8 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons versus earlier projections. Around 75% of this volume has already been shipped in the September–March window, underscoring robust in-season demand and a front-loaded export pace.
Central Asia Drives Export Growth
Central Asian buyers continue to dominate Kazakhstan’s wheat flows, with their combined share climbing to 76.3% of total exports, up from 73.6% a year earlier. Uzbekistan remains the key outlet, boosting purchases by 26% year-on-year and now accounting for 59.5% of Kazakhstan’s wheat exports compared with 47.8% in the prior season.
Additional growth has come from Turkey (shipments up 27-fold), Afghanistan (more than doubled), Portugal (up 185%), and the United Kingdom (doubled). In Europe, Belgium posted a 60% increase and Georgia 16%, while Italy’s imports fell 24% to 219,200 tons.
Shifting Trade Flows and Market Losses
Some traditional markets have sharply reduced purchases. Shipments to Turkmenistan dropped nearly threefold to 15,100 tons, Azerbaijan fell 2.5 times to 191,400 tons, and exports to Morocco halted completely from 94,600 tons previously. Wheat exports to China collapsed 14.2 times to just 9,400 tons, but this has been partially offset by a more than twofold increase in feed meal exports to 1,161,300 tons.
Market Sentiment and Price Implications
Market sentiment is assessed as neutral to slightly bullish. The upgraded export forecast and strong Central Asian demand confirm Kazakhstan’s competitive position as an alternative to Black Sea origins, while the high shipment pace suggests tighter Kazakh availability later in the marketing year. The growing concentration in regional markets also means limited direct pressure on broader Black Sea wheat prices, even as Central Asian buyers may increasingly turn to Russian and Ukrainian wheat once Kazakh supply thins.
Key Trade Flow Metrics
| Destination / Metric | Current Season | Previous Season / Reference | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kazakhstan wheat export forecast (2025/26 MY) | 8.0 million tons | 7.8 million tons | +200,000 tons |
| Share of forecast already shipped (Sep–Mar) | 75.0% | – | Front-loaded exports |
| Central Asia share of total wheat exports | 76.3% | 73.6% | +2.7 pp |
| Uzbekistan share of Kazakh wheat exports | 59.5% | 47.8% | +11.7 pp; volumes up 26% |
| Turkey | 27× previous volume | 1× (base) | 27-fold increase |
| Afghanistan | >2× | 1× (base) | More than doubled |
| Portugal | +185% | 1× (base) | Up 185% |
| United Kingdom | 2× | 1× (base) | Doubled |
| Belgium | +60% | 1× (base) | Up 60% |
| Georgia | +16% | 1× (base) | Up 16% |
| Italy | 219,200 tons | 100% (base) | -24% |
| Turkmenistan | 15,100 tons | ~3× current | Down nearly 3-fold |
| Azerbaijan | 191,400 tons | ~2.5× current | Down 2.5 times |
| Morocco | 0 tons | 94,600 tons | Exports ceased |
| China (wheat) | 9,400 tons | ~14.2× current | Down 14.2 times |
| China (feed meal) | 1,161,300 tons | <0.5× current | More than doubled |
Source: Market Data
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