Author: Viktoriia Ray
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China Soybean Oil Imports: Russia Grabs 93% in Dec
Neutral/Bearish Black Sea soybeans: South American competition intensifies as Brazil expands soybean meal exports 10.7% y/y and captures larger shares of China’s soybean complex demand. Supportive crush margins: Elevated Brazilian FOB soybean meal prices at $321.78/t and strong Chinese buying may underpin global crush demand, providing some offset to origin-premium pressure. Chinese demand reshuffling: Record…
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Russian Corn Exports to China Surge Nearly Threefold in 2025
Corn Surge: Russian corn exports to China jumped 2.9x in 2025 to a record 444,000 tons worth $107.6 million, signaling stronger Russian presence in Asian feed markets. Wheat Collapse: Wheat shipments to China plunged 5.7-fold to 60,600 tons, their lowest level since 2022, highlighting shifting Chinese demand or stronger competition from other origins. Mixed Grains:…
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Ukrainian Wheat Export Prices Steady Amid Weak Demand
Prices Stable: Ukrainian class 3 milling wheat export prices held steady at $206-214/t CPT Greater Odessa and $206-212/t CPT Danube ports as of January 22, 2026. Weak Demand: Low trading activity persists due to reduced competitiveness of Ukrainian wheat in international markets. Mild Pressure: Some exporters trimmed purchase prices after covering earlier export commitments, keeping…
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Russian Grain Exports Fall 33% on Logistics Crunch
Bearish: Russian grain exports fell 33% year-on-year in early January, with wheat, corn, and barley volumes all sharply lower. Bearish: Number of exporting companies dropped to a five-year low and active ports were nearly halved, exposing severe logistical and financial constraints. Neutral to Bearish: Russian wheat maintains a modest price discount to French and U.S.…
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Kazakhstan Sunflower Oil Expansion Starts in 2026
Investment: Albaraka 077 LLP is building a sunflower oil plant in Turkestan region with an investment of 800 million tenge, targeting launch in Q1 2026. Capacity Backdrop: The project follows Kazakhstan’s record 2025 oilseed harvest of 4.8 million tons, including 2.3 million tons of sunflower seeds. Construction Status: Main production building is completed and equipment…
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Vietnam Soybean Processing Doubles With $100M Expansion
Capacity boost: Vietnam Agribusiness has doubled its soybean processing capability to 7,800 tonnes per day with a $100 million second crushing line. Domestic coverage: The plant will supply around 2 million tonnes of soybean meal annually, covering roughly 30% of Vietnam’s feed protein demand. Trade flow impact: Expanded Vietnamese demand will likely favor South American…
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European Wheat Yields Stagnant – Farm Management Bottleneck
Yields Plateaued: Northwestern European wheat yields have stagnated around 7 t/ha since the mid-1990s despite higher genetic and climate potential. Farm Management Bottleneck: Fertilization, plant protection, and tillage practices are the main constraints on yield growth, not climate or varietal limits. Climate a Net Positive: Climate change has contributed an additional 26–60 kg/ha per year…
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Black Sea Port Restrictions Hit Grain Shipping
Access Restrictions: From January 2026, vessels with fewer than 10 interim port calls between Ukrainian and Russian ports are blocked from Russian Black Sea terminals. Inspection Costs: Underwater hull checks for ships using Romanian anchorages near Sulina are lengthening wait times and increasing freight disbursement costs. Regional Disparity: Black Sea enforcement is significantly stricter than…
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Indonesia Bulog Corn: 500,000t Distribution Plan for 2026
Indonesia Corn Market Update: Bulog Expands SPHP Program Massive program scale-up: Bulog plans to distribute 500,000 tonnes of corn in 2026 under the SPHP scheme, a tenfold increase from 2025’s 51,200 tonnes. Domestic procurement drive: Up to 1 million tonnes of corn will be purchased from local producers to strengthen Indonesia’s strategic reserves. Feed price…
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Kazakhstan Wheat Exports Surge to Japan and Saudi Markets
Kazakhstan expands value-added wheat exports: First wheat gluten shipment to Japan and new market entry into Saudi Arabia support long-term demand for processed wheat products. Mixed global wheat futures: CBOT March wheat eased 0.49% while MATIF milling wheat was unchanged, signaling broadly adequate global supply. Black Sea exports steady but uneven: Russian wheat shipments remained…