- Export Surge: Russian soybean and rapeseed oil exports to North Africa reached 0.22 million tons in Sept 2025–Apr 2026, a 54% year-on-year increase.
- Market Re-entry: Russia returned to Tunisia with a fivefold jump in rapeseed oil volumes and resumed soybean oil supplies after a multi-season gap.
- Capacity Utilization: Eight-month exports nearly matched the entire previous season (0.24 million tons), supporting Black Sea crush margins.
- Competitive Pressures: Strong competition from U.S. soybeans and Egyptian re-exports may limit further upside in Russian export prices.
Russian Vegetable Oil Export Performance
Russian soybean and rapeseed oil exports to North Africa expanded sharply during the first eight months of the 2025/26 marketing year. Agroexport data show combined shipments of 0.22 million tons between September 2025 and April 2026, an increase of 80,000 tons versus the same period a year earlier. This eight-month volume is already close to the full prior-season level of 0.24 million tons, highlighting strong regional demand.
Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Morocco: Market Developments
Tunisia was the standout growth market as Russia re-entered the country following earlier tender-related barriers. Rapeseed oil shipments to Tunisia increased fivefold year-on-year, while soybean oil exports resumed for the first time since the 2022/23 season, underscoring renewed access to this destination.
Russia maintained soybean oil deliveries to Libya and restarted shipments to Egypt despite stiff competition from American soybeans and local oversupply. Egypt’s strong domestic output forced it to redirect surplus vegetable oils to Algeria, Morocco, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and India, intensifying competition for Russian exporters in overlapping markets. In contrast, Russian rapeseed oil flows to Morocco held steady at prior-season levels, providing a stable export outlet.
Export Volumes and Growth Metrics
| Metric | Period | Volume (million tons) | Change vs. Prior Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Combined soybean & rapeseed oil exports to North Africa | Sept 2025–Apr 2026 | 0.22 | +0.08 (+54%) |
| Combined soybean & rapeseed oil exports to North Africa | Full prior season | 0.24 | Reference |
Trading Implications and Outlook
The strong growth in North African demand is neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea oilseeds. Higher offtake from Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Morocco supports crush utilization and diversifies Russian export exposure beyond traditional buyers. However, aggressive U.S. soybean competition and increased Egyptian re-exports are likely to cap Russian pricing power, particularly on soybean oil.
Traders should closely track Tunisia’s tender calendar and Egyptian production and export programs, as shifts in these variables will influence basis levels, freight demand and logistics planning out of Black Sea ports through the remainder of the 2025/26 marketing year.
Source: Market Data
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