Category: Wheat

Production Surge: Russia’s 2025 net wheat harvest climbs 11% year-on-year to 91.37 million tons, boosting exportable supply. Yield Strength: Average wheat yield rises 17% to 34.4 centners per hectare, underscoring strong agronomic performance. Regional Shift: Stavropol Krai overtakes Krasnodar as top producing region with 8.19 million tons. Bearish Price Signal: Larger Black Sea export availability…

Russia cuts wheat export duty by 10.8% to 97.3 rubles/ton from January 12, down from 109.1 rubles/ton. Barley and corn duties remain at zero, preserving Russia’s competitive edge in global feed grain markets. Indicative wheat price edges up to $228.4/ton from $227.9/ton, signaling steady export demand. Duty changes are short-lived, applying only for January 12–13,…

81% food-grade spring wheat: 135,900 tons of the 2025 Irkutsk Region harvest meets food-industry standards, supported by strong protein and gluten quality. Comprehensive state monitoring: 167,400 tons assessed across 17 districts, with 31,500 tons classified as feed-grade wheat. Export readiness: Quality certification under Russia’s federal export program supports additional milling-quality supply into global markets. Market…

Import Outlook: Pakistan is now expected to avoid wheat imports in 2025/26, reversing the previous FAS forecast of 1.5 million tons. Domestic Support: Government plans to procure 6.2 million tons at a fixed price of about USD 312/ton, underpinning farm incomes and local supply. Global Market Impact: Neutral to bearish for Black Sea wheat exporters…

Sizeable procurement: Algeria’s OAIC booked 500,000–550,000 tons of durum wheat in its December 23 tender for February–March 2026 delivery. Price benchmarks set: Panamax cargoes priced at about $315/ton C&F, with Handymax shipments at a premium of $323–$325/ton C&F. Forward coverage: 13–14 month delivery window signals early strategic stockpiling and concern over future availability or volatility.…

Key Takeaways Volume Secured: Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr booked about 700,000 tons of wheat via private deals. Diverse Origins: Supplies will come from Black Sea exporters (Russia, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Romania) and France. Forward Deliveries: Shipments are scheduled for January–February 2026, supporting strategic reserves. Bullish Signal: Large, early forward buying is supportive for Black Sea export prices.…

Global prices ease: Benchmark wheat grades across Russia, the US, EU, Ukraine, Romania, and Argentina all declined on abundant supply. Demand risks: China canceled 132,000 tons of US wheat purchases, reinforcing bearish market sentiment. Supply boost: Argentina’s harvest forecast rose to 27.1 million tons, with yields up 51% year-on-year. Stable Black Sea competitiveness: Russian and…

Bearish for Black Sea Wheat: Argentina’s record 27.1–27.7 MMT wheat crop and aggressive FOB offers at $206–209/ton for January delivery are undercutting Black Sea, French, and U.S. origins. Neutral to Bullish for Russian Logistics: Russia’s National Commodity Exchange is launching a new wheat spot trading platform with priority rail access to Novorossiysk, potentially strengthening export…

Export Pace: Russia shipped 26.6 million tonnes of wheat in July–December, above the five-year average but 8.5% below last season’s record, signaling solid yet moderating export momentum. Price Pressure: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB values eased to $227–228/t amid abundant global supplies and weaker competing origins, creating a neutral to slightly bearish price backdrop. Global…

Bullish: Russian winter and spring wheat acreage continues to contract, threatening exportable supply and supporting global wheat prices into 2026/27. Bearish Offset: Higher winter wheat plantings in Ukraine and France may partially counterbalance Russian output declines if yields and logistics remain stable. Structural: Russian farm profitability has dropped 62% since 2021, suggesting continued acreage pressure…