Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Brazilian Soybean Exports to Russia Plunge 63%
Brazil–Russia Shift: Brazilian soybean exports to Russia plunged 63% to 150,000 tons, cutting soybeans’ share of bilateral trade to just 6.5%. China Buying U.S. Beans: Sinograin booked 600,000+ tons of U.S. soybeans for Apr–May, pushing total commitments toward 10–12 million tons despite cheaper Brazilian offers. Sustainability Premium: Bunge’s 12,000-ton traceable soybean meal deal and 345,000-hectare…
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USDA Wheat Forecast: Global Output Climbs on Russia
USDA lifts global wheat output: 2025/26 global wheat production raised by 4.36 million tonnes to 842.17 million tonnes, led by larger Russian and Argentine crops. Exports edge higher: Global wheat exports forecast up to 219.76 million tonnes, with stronger Argentine shipments offsetting cuts to EU and Ukraine. Stocks build: Global ending stocks increased by 3.38…
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Kazakh Wheat Flour Exports Drop in Early 2025/26
Kazakhstan’s wheat flour exports to Afghanistan declined 9.8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025/26, falling to 321,000 tons. Shipments to Uzbekistan dropped 18.8% over the same period, totaling 102,700 tons. Combined exports to both key markets decreased by around 58,800 tons, signaling softer regional demand or stronger competition. For Black Sea traders, the impact…
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Ukrainian road freight plunges 65% in January
Ukrainian agricultural road exports fell 65% in January to 3,700 tons/day from 10,400 tons/day in December. First-week January shipments totaled 22,800 tons, nearly three times lower than December’s 81,200 tons for the same period. Seasonal weakness and border clearance inefficiencies are the main drivers of the contraction. A gradual recovery in volumes is expected in…
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Black Sea Rapeseed Prices Tick Up on EU Tightness
Export prices edge higher: Ukrainian rapeseed export values strengthened to USD 545/t CPT-port amid tight EU supplies and farmer selling restraint. Crush margins under pressure: Domestic processing bids fell to UAH 23,000–24,000/t CPT as plants face weaker margins and shift toward sunflower and soybean. Forward curve turns discounted: 2026 harvest forward prices are about USD…
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Kazakhstan Grain Subsidy Overhaul Boosts Fair Access
Regulatory correction: Kazakhstan’s competition authority ordered Food Contract Corporation to fix anticompetitive practices in grain transportation subsidy distribution. Process reform: Over 60% of subsidies had gone to a limited group, with application review times ranging from same-day to 80–112 days, prompting mandatory procedural changes. Digital transparency: A new electronic portal and public tracking of applications…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Up $100/MT This Month
Bullish: Black Sea FOB sunflower oil for January 2026 delivery has climbed $100/MT month-over-month to $1,270/MT amid tight global vegetable oil supplies and three-year highs in the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index. Bearish: Upside is limited by competitive pressure from cheaper palm and soybean oils, a stronger ruble weighing on Russian export competitiveness, and indications…
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Ukrainian Soybean Prices Slip as Ports Face Attacks
Prices: Ukrainian soybean export prices eased, with most deals reported around USD 423–425 per ton. Logistics: Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure continue to disrupt unloading operations and constrain exports. Demand: Domestic soybean demand softened as soybean meal export prices fell to USD 350–370 per ton DAP-western border. Sentiment: Market tone is neutral to slightly…
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Russian Wheat Export Forecast Up to 44.6M Tons
Forecast Upgrade: SovEcon raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export outlook to 44.6 million tons on strong demand and better export economics. Record Sales: November wheat shipments hit an all-time high of 5.1 million tons as buyers returned after delaying purchases. Improved Margins: Export margins turned slightly positive as domestic prices fell while FOB values held near…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Drop: What Traders Need
Bullish: Soybean oil and soybean meal prices strengthened across Brazil, the US, EU, and China, with Dalian China soybeans and FOB Brazil soybean oil posting the largest gains, signaling robust demand in the broader oilseed complex. Bearish: Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea and sunflower meal CIF France both declined, pointing to pressure on Black Sea…
