Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Soybean Yields Surge 20.8% in 2025
Surging Russian yields: Record 20.2 c/ha (+20.8% y/y) and strong Central Federal District performance significantly expand Black Sea soybean exportable supply. Weaker EU demand: EU soybean imports down 14% to 6.61 M tonnes in 2025/26 MY as domestic output and processing rise, curbing external buying needs. Bearish price pressure: Growing supply amid softening EU import…
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Turkish Barley Imports Surge, Boost Russian Barley
Bullish: Turkish barley imports are projected to surge to 1.3 million tons (from 0.15 million tons), creating strong demand for Russian and Black Sea barley. Bearish: Record EU barley harvest of 56 million tons increases competition, pressuring Russian export prices and margins. Supply Shock: Turkey’s domestic barley harvest fell 13% year-on-year to 6.1 million tons,…
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Russian Wheat Prices Hit 18-Month Low Amid Oversupply
Bearish: Russian grade 4 wheat prices in the European part fell to RUB 13,050/ton ($165/ton), the lowest level in 18 months amid oversupply. Bearish: January wheat exports from Russian ports are 46% below the five-year average, highlighting weak external demand. Bearish: Logistics bottlenecks and slow rail movement are trapping grain inland, intensifying price pressure in…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Retreats — Price Outlook
Bullish: Rapeseed oil and meal led gains, with EU rapeseed complex hitting weekly highs and palm oil strengthening across origins. Bearish: Black Sea sunflower oil and Western Hemisphere soybean markets softened, highlighting pressure on export-oriented origins. Mixed: Soybean oil and meal showed regional divergence, creating potential arbitrage opportunities between EU, American, and Asian markets. Global…
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Kazakhstan Grain Exports Surge 18.6% — Trade Boost
Central Asian demand surges: Kazakhstan’s grain exports rose 18.6% year-on-year to 5.1 million tonnes, led by strong growth in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan. Shift to value-added in Russia: Russia’s average food export value per tonne increased 25% in 2025 as the country pivots from bulk grain to higher-margin processed products. Freight mix changing: Outlook is…
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Kemerovo Rapeseed Oil Export to China Signals Market Shift
First exports to China: Kemerovo Oblast shipped 350 tons of rapeseed oil to China in 2025, opening a new export channel. Major processing expansion: Rusagro’s new Kuzbass plant is set to process ~1 million tons of rapeseed annually by 2027, yielding 600–700 thousand tons of oil. Production growth target: Regional authorities plan to increase rapeseed…
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Russian Rapeseed Export Quota Expanded – 18,800t Added
Russia extends Trans-Baikal sunflower seed and rapeseed export quotas to August 31, 2026, preserving preferential access to Asian buyers. Rapeseed export capacity from the region nearly triples to 28,251 tonnes, leveraging record national rapeseed output. Strong duty differential (6.5% vs. 30%) guarantees full quota utilization and supports competitive pricing versus other Black Sea origins. Market…
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Jordan Wheat Tender: COFCO Wins 60,000t at $261/ton
Competitive pricing: Jordan secured 60,000 tons of milling wheat at $261.25/ton C&F, the lowest bid among four global traders. Partial volume awarded: Only half of the planned 120,000-ton tender was purchased, signaling cautious demand. Benchmark for April: The winning price sets a reference level for regional wheat valuations for April 2026 shipment. Neutral to slightly…
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Palm Oil Exports Drop – Price Competitiveness Rises
Exports Softening: Malaysian palm oil exports fell 9.7% year-over-year in 2025 to 15.26 million tonnes amid weaker demand from key buyers including India, China, the EU, and Turkey. Price Competitiveness: Palm oil now trades at a steep discount of $250/tonne to sunflower oil and $100/tonne to soybean oil, enhancing its appeal in price-sensitive markets. Short-Term…
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Australian Canola Production Surges, Pressures Rapeseed
Bearish supply shock: Australian canola output reached 7.65 million tonnes in 2025/26, 420,000 tonnes (5.8%) above ABARES’ December forecast, adding unexpected supply to global markets. Record Western Australian crop: Western Australia’s all‑time high production significantly boosts raw material availability for canola meal processors. Weak EU demand: EU rapeseed import demand has fallen 43%, sharply reducing…