Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Ukraine grain exports rise in Jan 2025 — Market Alert
January 2025 grain exports edged up to 2.649 million tons, slightly above January 2024 volumes and signaling a modest acceleration in near-term shipment pace. Total 2025/26 MY exports remained 26.9% below last year at 18.181 million tons, highlighting ongoing supply constraints or delayed flows from Ukraine. Corn and wheat together made up 91% of exports,…
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Russian Soybean Oil Exports Grab 43% of MENA Revenue
Neutral to Bearish Black Sea spreads: Russia’s 11% YoY growth in soybean oil exports to MENA and 43% revenue share may pressure FOB Black Sea vegetable oil premiums. Supportive demand in MENA: Broad-based buying from Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel underpins stable regional demand for Russian soybean oil. Stronger Russian export footing:…
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Poland Tightens Controls on Ukrainian Agricultural Imports
Bearish for Ukrainian ag exports: Poland is pushing for automatic duties once Ukrainian imports exceed historical averages and demanding stricter quality and safety checks. Supportive for EU farmers: Proposal for a compensation fund and tighter monitoring aims to shield EU producers from competitive pressure in grain, sugar, and poultry. Policy risk for trade flows: Monthly,…
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US Soybean Exports Surge 13% in 2024/25 — Market Impact
Export growth: Total US soybean product exports rose 13% year-on-year to 68.7 million tonnes, valued at $29.6 billion. Product mix shift: Soybean oil exports surged 304% to 1.1 million tonnes; soybean meal exports hit a record 16.3 million tonnes (+14%). Demand drivers: Strong global demand, improved market access, and enhanced US price competitiveness underpinned the…
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Ukrainian Feed Corn Prices Rally on Tight Supply
Domestic rally: Ukrainian feed corn prices climbed 100–300 UAH/t to 8,500–10,000 UAH/t CPT on tight farmer selling and strong buyer interest. Export support: Port prices held firm at 203–210 USD/t CPT-port, underpinned by continued strength in the international market. Bullish structure: Limited supply, robust domestic demand, and stable export values create a constructive, bullish outlook…
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Kazakh Grain Exports via Azerbaijan: New Corridor Opens
Strategic pivot: Kazakhstan is increasingly using Azerbaijan as a key export corridor for grain flows to the Caucasus, Turkey, Iran, and the broader Middle East. Logistics capacity: AGT Cargo supports the route with 923 dedicated railcars and its own grain terminal infrastructure, enhancing reliability and throughput. Route diversification: Leveraging the North-South and Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railways reduces…
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Russian Sunflower Oil Export Duty Up for February
Higher duty: Russia’s sunflower oil export duty rises to 9,495 rubles/ton in February, up 196.4 rubles from January on stronger indicative prices. Meal support: Sunflower meal exports keep a zero duty for the second month, maintaining Russia’s competitiveness in global protein feed markets. Firm prices: The indicative sunflower oil price increases to $1,233.3/ton, signaling stable-to-firm…
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Brazil Soybean Production Set for Record 2025 Harvest
Harvest Progress: Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest is 2% complete as of January 15, slightly ahead of last year, with crops in key states rated good to excellent. Record Production Outlook: Forecasts range from 176.1–179.3 million tonnes, with Safras&Mercado holding the most bullish estimate at 179.3 million tonnes. Crushing Capacity Growth: Domestic soybean crushing is projected…
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Kazakhstan Corn Expansion Fuels New Processing Plants
Strategic acreage shift: Kazakhstan plans to expand corn sowings by 45,000 ha across three northern grain regions to feed new processing plants. Processing-led demand: Fufeng Group’s deep processing facility and Kazkrakhmal LLC’s starch syrup plant are driving the need for additional domestic corn supply. Chinese technical support: Chinese firms will provide adapted seed varieties and…
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Ukrainian Wheat Prices Hold Steady Despite Power Cuts
Ukrainian milling wheat prices held steady at USD 206–214/t CPT port, with feed wheat at USD 198–208/t CPT port. Farmer reluctance to sell and firm consumer demand supported prices despite weak trader interest. Frequent power outages and reduced production capacity limited upside and added operational risk. Domestic prices remained stable, with second-class wheat at UAH…