Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Oilseed Exports Face Push Amid Oversupply
Bearish Russia domestic: Severe oversupply in pulses and oilseeds has driven sharp price declines, with green lentils down 68% and soybeans down about 30% year-on-year. Mixed exports & freight: Lower prices could boost Russian export competitiveness and vessel demand, but sanctions, FX volatility, and logistics constraints limit the pace of export growth. Farm margins at…
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Russian Grain Exports Reach 50M Tons in 2025
Neutral: Russia maintained robust 2025 grain exports at 50M tons, including 41M tons of wheat, cementing its role as a key supplier to Africa and the Middle East. Bearish: A 21% contraction in agricultural machinery shipments and 31% drop in key equipment segments signal underinvestment risks for future production capacity. Neutral: Growing pulses exports (around…
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Chinese UCO Prices Surge Above Malaysian Straits
Bullish (China UCO): Pre-Lunar New Year stockpiling, higher logistics costs, and stronger domestic SAF demand have pushed UCO FOB North China to a $26/tonne premium over Straits. Bearish (Straits UCO / Black Sea vegoils): Weak export demand from the Straits amid a strong Malaysian ringgit and only limited, temporary substitution upside for Black Sea sunflower…
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China soybean oil exports surge, reshaping markets
Neutral to Bearish Black Sea Sunflower Oil: China’s rising soybean oil exports intensify competition in key Asian vegetable oil markets, weighing on Black Sea sunflower oil demand. Structural Shift in Trade Flows: Surplus Chinese soybean oil, driven by overbuilt crushing capacity and slowing domestic demand, is reshaping global oilseed and vegoil trade patterns. Support from…
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Ukrainian Feed Corn Prices Edge Higher Amid Tight Supply
Prices Firming: Ukrainian feed corn values at Greater Odessa and Danube ports rose by 1–2 USD/t as supply remains tight. Supply-Demand Imbalance: Strong purchasing interest is outpacing available volumes, lifting bids despite geopolitical and competitive headwinds. Moderately Bullish Tone: Traders show cautious optimism, with opportunities emerging in the price spread between Odessa and Danube ports.…
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Kazakhstan Wheat Prices Surge on Chinese Feed Demand
Bullish: Strong Chinese demand for feed meal is lifting Kazakhstan’s lower-grade wheat prices and creating a price floor despite adequate regional supply. Bearish: Falling flour prices in Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan are pressuring margins and limiting the ability of Central Asian buyers to match higher Kazakh wheat offers. Kazakhstan Wheat Market Imbalance A pronounced price…
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Global Vegetable Oil Prices: Mixed Moves Jan 27
Bullish: Rapeseed oil, palm kernel oil, and coconut oil hit fresh highs, while sunflower and rapeseed meals strengthened, underscoring robust demand for vegetable oils and protein meals. Bearish: Brazilian soybean oil and several soybean meal benchmarks softened, highlighting regional oversupply and pressure on South American crush margins. Mixed: Divergent moves between Black Sea, EU, US,…
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Ukraine Export Strategy: From Volume to Value
Exports Down: Ukrainian goods exports slipped 3% to $40.5 billion in 2024, remaining below 2022 levels despite modest economic growth. Support Up: Export Credit Agency backing rose 40% in 2025 to UAH 10.43 billion, with officials calling for further scale-up. Value Focus: Policy is pivoting from bulk, low-margin commodities toward higher-value, non-resource exports amid infrastructure limits. Freight Impact:…
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Brazilian Safrinha Corn Planting Accelerates
Accelerated planting: Brazil’s safrinha corn planting has reached 4.7% of planned area, more than double last year’s 2.2% pace. Higher output outlook: 2025/26 Brazilian corn production forecast raised to 136.6 million tonnes, adding 0.6 million tonnes to expected global supply. Export competition: Larger Brazilian supplies in mid-2025 could weigh on Black Sea corn export premiums…
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Russian Wheat Exports Forecast Raised to 45.7 Mt
Export Outlook Raised: SovEcon lifted Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 45.7 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes from its prior estimate and 12% above last season. Shipments at Multi‑Year Highs: November exports hit a record 5.2 million tonnes and December reached 4.2 million tonnes, the strongest December volume in eight years. Quota Seen as…