Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Ukraine Sunflower Oil Exports Face $600M Loss in 2026
Bearish Ukraine FX Earnings: Sunflower oil export revenue losses may exceed $0.6 billion in 2026 due to ongoing infrastructure damage. Structurally Lower Exports: Export volumes are projected to stabilize at just 3.2–3.5 million tons in 2025/26, well below pre-war levels of 6.1 million tons in 2020. Capacity Shock: The loss of around 50% of Ukraine’s…
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China Rapeseed Oil Stocks Plunge — Price Rally
Stocks Slide: China’s rapeseed oil inventories fell 8.4% in a week to 254.5 thousand tons, signaling tightening domestic supply. Futures Firm: Rapeseed oil futures gained 49 yuan/ton as traders price in stronger demand and reduced availability. Russian Supply Gains: Russia’s rapeseed oil exports to China climbed 27% year-on-year to $1.4 billion, making it the country’s…
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Palm Oil Prices Rally to New Highs
Palm oil rally: Malaysian FOB palm oil surged to a new high of $1,104.45/t, supporting firmer prices across Asian vegetable oil markets. Meal weakness: Rapeseed meal FOB EU fell sharply by $20.02/t to $262.94/t, signaling pressure on European crush margins. Mixed soy complex: Brazilian soybeans and some soy oils declined while US CBOT soybeans and…
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Russian Grain Exports Set to Surge in 2026
Bearish: Russia’s projected 55 million tons of grain exports in 2026 add significant supply pressure to Black Sea wheat and corn markets. Bearish: Record regional harvests and strong logistics, particularly in Omsk and Krasnodar, support sustained high exportable surpluses. Neutral: Growing focus on value-added processing in Krasnodar may reduce raw grain availability for export but…
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Ukrainian sunflower seed prices fall as demand weakens
Prices soften: Ukrainian sunflower seed values for 48% oil content have eased to UAH 28,800–29,000/ton from recent highs of UAH 29,500–29,700/ton. Processor coverage high: Crushers have already secured around 60–70% of February needs, cutting purchasing activity and removing price premiums. Further downside expected: PUSK analysts project an additional short-term decline of UAH 500–700/ton, but do…
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Argentine Heat Wave Threatens Corn, Soybean Yields
Weather Shock: Extreme heat near 40°C and persistent drought are stressing Argentine corn and soybean crops during critical early growth stages. Moisture Deficit: Southern Santa Fe and northern Buenos Aires require 70–80 mm of rain, with no significant precipitation expected until early February. High Planting Progress: With 93.1% of corn and 96.2% of soybeans already…
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Canadian Wheat Exports Stay Strong Amid Record Harvest
Neutral: Canada’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast raised to 28.6 million tonnes, keeping global supplies well covered. Slightly Bearish for Black Sea: Strong Canadian export pace and steady 2026/27 export projections signal ongoing competition in key import markets. Stocks Drawdown: Exports remain elevated despite a projected 5 million tonne production decline, implying reduced stockpiles rather than…
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Brazilian Soybeans Top China Imports on Price Edge
Bearish US soybeans: Chinese private crushers favor Brazilian supplies due to a 10-percentage-point tariff advantage (13% vs 3%), limiting commercial demand for US origins. Supportive for Brazilian exports: Record projected Brazilian production of 182.2 million tonnes underpins aggressive forward sales and competitive pricing into China. Neutral to bearish for Black Sea protein complex: Cheaper Brazilian soybeans…
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Argentina Corn Production Threatened by Heat Wave
Bullish Black Sea corn: Argentine heat wave threatens corn yields, tightening global exportable supply and supporting Black Sea FOB prices. Weather risk premium: Limited rainfall before February increases crop stress during critical growth stages, encouraging risk hedging and higher basis levels. Cross-commodity support: Deteriorating sorghum and pasture conditions may shift demand toward imported feed grains.…
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Kazakhstan Wheat Imports Hit 1M Tons as Russia Supplies All
Kazakhstan imports raised: 2025/26 wheat import forecast increased by 400,000 tons to 1.0 million tons. Russian dominance: Around 100% of Kazakhstan’s wheat imports are expected to come from Russia. Strong early-season imports: Kazakhstan already imported 168,900 tons of wheat in September–November 2025. Exports also rising: Wheat and flour export forecast lifted from 12.1 to 12.55…