Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Turkey Barley Imports Hit 70% of Needs
Turkey has already secured around 70% of its 2025/26 barley import needs (0.9 Mt contracted versus 1.3 Mt projected imports) after a 13% drop in domestic output to 6.1 Mt. Russia is the dominant supplier, holding over 50% of Turkey’s barley import market and lifting shipments to 0.5 Mt in H1 2025/26 from 0.2 Mt…
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Russian Fuel Exchange Reform Could Cut Farm Diesel Costs
Policy Focus: Russia is preparing mandatory exchange standards for small-scale wholesale fuel sales to let farms, gas stations, and industrial buyers access diesel and gasoline directly from producers. Cost Pressure: Early January 2026 diesel and gasoline price increases highlight persistent fuel cost pressure for agricultural and industrial consumers. Potential Relief: Cutting trader markups via direct…
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Russia-China Agricultural Trade Hits $1B Monthly Record
Record Export Value: Russia’s agricultural exports to China surpassed $1 billion in December 2025 for the first time, on volumes of 1.3 million tons. Oilseeds in Focus: Rapeseed oil led shipments at $215 million, with strong flows in seafood and flaxseed reinforcing diversified demand. Logistics Digitization: Continental Farmers Group launched an ERP-based carrier portal to…
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Russian Rapeseed Oil Exports Surge to $1B
Bullish: Russia’s December 2025 ag exports to China hit a record $1+ billion, led by $215 million in rapeseed oil, with 2025 production and export volumes forecast to jump 20% and 29.7% year-on-year. Bearish: China’s tariff cut on Canadian canola from 84% to 15% and resumption of imports pushed Zhengzhou rapeseed meal futures down 2.4%,…
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Russian Soybean Yields Surge 20.8% in 2025
Surging Russian yields: Record 20.2 c/ha (+20.8% y/y) and strong Central Federal District performance significantly expand Black Sea soybean exportable supply. Weaker EU demand: EU soybean imports down 14% to 6.61 M tonnes in 2025/26 MY as domestic output and processing rise, curbing external buying needs. Bearish price pressure: Growing supply amid softening EU import…
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Turkish Barley Imports Surge, Boost Russian Barley
Bullish: Turkish barley imports are projected to surge to 1.3 million tons (from 0.15 million tons), creating strong demand for Russian and Black Sea barley. Bearish: Record EU barley harvest of 56 million tons increases competition, pressuring Russian export prices and margins. Supply Shock: Turkey’s domestic barley harvest fell 13% year-on-year to 6.1 million tons,…
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Russian Wheat Prices Hit 18-Month Low Amid Oversupply
Bearish: Russian grade 4 wheat prices in the European part fell to RUB 13,050/ton ($165/ton), the lowest level in 18 months amid oversupply. Bearish: January wheat exports from Russian ports are 46% below the five-year average, highlighting weak external demand. Bearish: Logistics bottlenecks and slow rail movement are trapping grain inland, intensifying price pressure in…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Retreats — Price Outlook
Bullish: Rapeseed oil and meal led gains, with EU rapeseed complex hitting weekly highs and palm oil strengthening across origins. Bearish: Black Sea sunflower oil and Western Hemisphere soybean markets softened, highlighting pressure on export-oriented origins. Mixed: Soybean oil and meal showed regional divergence, creating potential arbitrage opportunities between EU, American, and Asian markets. Global…
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Kazakhstan Grain Exports Surge 18.6% — Trade Boost
Central Asian demand surges: Kazakhstan’s grain exports rose 18.6% year-on-year to 5.1 million tonnes, led by strong growth in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan. Shift to value-added in Russia: Russia’s average food export value per tonne increased 25% in 2025 as the country pivots from bulk grain to higher-margin processed products. Freight mix changing: Outlook is…
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Kemerovo Rapeseed Oil Export to China Signals Market Shift
First exports to China: Kemerovo Oblast shipped 350 tons of rapeseed oil to China in 2025, opening a new export channel. Major processing expansion: Rusagro’s new Kuzbass plant is set to process ~1 million tons of rapeseed annually by 2027, yielding 600–700 thousand tons of oil. Production growth target: Regional authorities plan to increase rapeseed…