Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Ukrainian Sunflower Prices Hit Record Highs
Bullish: Ukrainian sunflower seed prices hit record highs of UAH 28,800-30,000/t CPT on strong processor demand and tight supply. Bearish: Power outages, processing suspensions, and cooling export prices for sunflower oil raise downside risks for sustained high price levels. Structural: Russia’s growing dominance in global sunflower oil exports intensifies competitive pressure on Ukrainian suppliers. Ukrainian…
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Novorossiysk Wheat Loadings Surge 74% – Market Impact
Logistics boost: Novorossiysk wheat loadings jumped 74% week-on-week to 278.2 thousand tons, signaling improved port performance and solid demand from North Africa. Demand concentration: Egypt and Sudan absorbed 64.7% of weekly wheat shipments, underscoring the port’s heavy reliance on North African buyers. Rising competition: Record Canadian wheat output and higher export forecasts are increasing competition…
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Ukraine Agricultural Exports Under EU Review — Price Risk
Regulatory risk: Four EU member states are pushing for tighter standards and safeguards on Ukrainian agricultural imports, raising uncertainty for Q1 2026 trade flows. Producer protection: Proposed alignment of Ukrainian import standards with EU rules and a new compensation fund could support EU farmers in sensitive sectors. Bearish for Black Sea grain: Potential restrictions on…
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Malaysia Sets Waste Vegetable Oil Reference Price
Policy shift: Malaysia will introduce an official domestic reference price for waste vegetable oil (WVO) in Q1 2026 to improve market transparency and protect smaller players. Strong demand: Asian WVO prices hit a two-year high in 2024, supported by increased buying from China and Europe. Rising supply: Malaysia, the world’s second-largest palm oil producer, reports…
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Ukraine Rapeseed Meal Exports Surge 70% in H1 2025
Exports surge: Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports jumped 70% year-on-year in H1 2025/26 to 340,000 tonnes, supported by a sharp rise in domestic crushing to 800,000 tonnes. EU demand contracts: Shipments to the EU slumped to 71,000 tonnes from 171,000 tonnes amid strong local harvests and mounting competition from Canadian suppliers. China leads buying: China became…
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U.S. Soybean Exports Surge 13% in 2024/25
Export Surge: U.S. soybean complex exports climbed 13% in 2024/25 to 68.7 MMT, with total export value reaching $29.6 billion. Record Meal & Oil: Soybean meal exports hit a record 16.3 MMT (+14%), while soybean oil exports jumped 304% to 1.1 MMT, led by Indian demand. Shifting Trade Flows: Rapid growth in U.S. soybean meal…
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Russian Wheat FOB Prices Rise Amid Black Sea Disruptions
Bullish Wheat: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB prices have risen to $228–230/tonne for the second consecutive week amid severe Black Sea port weather disruptions and downgraded January export estimates. Mixed Vegetable Oils: Sunflower oil prices show divergence across agencies and have printed a new Black Sea minimum, while export duty has increased, tempering downside for…
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Ukraine Grain Exports Fall 28% – Freight Market Impact
Bearish Ukraine freight: Grain exports are down 28% year-on-year, reducing Black Sea shipping demand, especially on Ukraine–MENA routes. Bullish Russian oilseed flows: New flaxseed oil capacity (120,000 tons) and strong sunflower oil positions support expanded export and logistics activity. Higher Russian inland costs: Rail freight tariff increases from 2026 will modestly raise export logistics costs…
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Russian Sunflower Oil Export Duty at 9,495 RUB/MT
Policy Signal: Russia sets February 2026 sunflower oil export duty at 9,495 rubles/MT, keeping government pressure on export flows. Supply Risk: Krasnodar Krai sunflower oil output fell 19% in 2025 to 900,000 MT due to adverse weather and lower yields. Meal Support: Sunflower meal export duty stays at zero for a second month, supporting feed…
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Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports: China Overtakes EU
Bullish: Ukrainian rapeseed meal exports surged 70% in July–December 2025/26 to 340,000 tonnes, supported by higher domestic crushing of 800,000 tonnes and strong Chinese demand. Bearish: EU imports collapsed amid Canadian competition, while weak domestic consumption and the risk of China reverting to Canadian supplies create structural downside for margins and export demand. China Overtakes…