Author: Viktoriia Ray
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India Wheat Exports Approved: $80/ton Price Gap
Neutral for global prices: India authorizes 3 MMT of wheat and processed grain exports, but high offer levels limit export execution. Bearish for Black Sea competitors: Indian wheat’s $80/tonne premium over Argentine and cheaper Black Sea origins keeps India largely non-competitive. Supportive for Indian farmers: Policy aims to stabilize domestic prices and maintain farm profitability…
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Kazakhstan sunflower export duty sparks price risk
Policy tension: Kazakhstan’s competition agency urges cutting the 20% sunflower seed export duty, saying it harms farmers, while processors warn of domestic price spikes. Domestic prices at risk: Processors project retail sunflower oil could jump to 1,200–1,300 tenge/liter if the duty is reduced, versus current 786–814 tenge/liter. Capacity expansion: Refining capacity is set to rise…
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Argentina Soybean Forecast Rises to 48M Tonnes
Argentina’s 2023/24 soybean harvest forecast raised by 1 million tonnes to 48 million tonnes on improved weather. Critical rains of 25–100 mm expected in key producing areas over the next week will help determine final yields. Corn production projection held at a record 62 million tonnes, reinforcing Argentina’s export availability. Global oilseed balance turns looser…
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US Corn Exports Surge, Displacing Ukraine in EU
US corn gains EU ground: US corn shipments to the EU rose by 6.5 million tons between 2023/24 and 2024/25, while Ukrainian exports fell by 7.5 million tons, signaling a major reshaping of Atlantic trade flows. Trade deals lock in US market access: New US agreements with Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian buyers secured…
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Russian Wheat Exports May Rise – IKAR 2026/27 Forecast
Bearish: Russia’s 2026/27 wheat harvest forecast was raised to 91 million tons, increasing projected export availability to 47.5 million tons. Bearish: Kazakhstan’s wheat stocks are robust at 13.96 million tons, supporting regional supply and limiting upside price momentum. Neutral: Production and export outlooks remain preliminary and subject to weather and geopolitical risks that could tighten…
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Prices Dip — Feb 12 Update
Bearish sunflower oil: Black Sea sunflower oil FOB fell to a weekly low of $1,300/t, signaling softer demand or improved export availability. Bullish meals: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal hit new highs across major exchanges, reflecting strong feed demand and supporting crush margins. Rapeseed oil strength: Rapeseed oil FOB Netherlands surged to a record $1,291.39/t…
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Ukrainian Grain Exports Persist Despite Port Damage
Operational Resilience: Despite heavy damage to 686 port facilities and 150 civilian vessels, Ukraine maintains six operational seaports and a functioning maritime export corridor. Sustained Grain Flows: The Ukrainian Maritime Corridor has moved 173 million tons of cargo, including over 103 million tons of grain, supporting continued export availability. Logistical Risk Premium: Extensive damage to…
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Alashankou Dry Port Boosts China-Kazakhstan Rail Trade
Infrastructure Upgrade: Neptune Logistics launches a 13.3-hectare multimodal dry port at Alashankou, 3 km from the China-Kazakhstan border, boosting China–Europe/Central Asia rail capacity. Faster Transit: New facility enables cargo delivery to Central Asia in 3 days, Russia in 7 days, and Europe in 10 days via rail. Mixed Black Sea Impact: Enhanced rail corridor is…
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Chinese Vegetable Oil Market Slips Ahead of Spring Festival
Bearish: Chinese vegetable oil prices fell across all major categories by mid-February, led by a 4% drop in rapeseed oil and a 3.55% decline in palm oil. Neutral: The soybean complex showed relative resilience, with soybean prices steady despite a 2.5% fall in soybean oil and a marginal 0.44% decline in soybean meal. Bearish: Pre-Spring…
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Turkish Tomato Import Quota Faces 20% Increase
Policy Shift: Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture has proposed raising the Turkish tomato import quota from 500,000 to 600,000 tons despite underutilization of the current limit. Domestic Pressure: Industry experts argue additional Turkish volumes are unnecessary, highlighting strong Russian and CIS production and quality advantages. Price Dynamics: Producer prices for tomatoes are down 18.2% year-on-year, while…