Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Ukraine Sunflower Oil Still Dominates EU Despite 21% Drop
Ukraine retains a dominant 92% share of EU sunflower oil imports despite a 21% year-on-year drop in shipped volumes. Total EU sunflower oil imports fell 19% to 1.04 million tonnes, tightening regional vegetable oil availability. Ukraine’s reduced sunflower harvest (down to 10.5 million tonnes from 13 million tonnes) constrains processing and export capacity into mid-2026.…
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Ukrainian Wheat Prices Rise as Supply Tightens
Bullish: Ukrainian food wheat prices rose USD 1-2/t amid tightening supply, stronger export demand, and reduced competition from Russian exports. Bearish: Higher prices have not yet encouraged significant farmer selling, limiting nearby supply response and potentially increasing volatility. Ukrainian Wheat Market Update Ukrainian food wheat prices in key ports extended their gains as of February…
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Russian Grain Transshipment Falls 14.5% in Jan 2026
Bearish logistics signal: Russian seaports’ grain transshipment fell 14.5% y/y in January 2026 to 3.4 million tons, highlighting ongoing pressure on Black Sea export flows. Systemic softness: Total port cargo turnover declined 7% y/y, with dry cargo down 10.4% and liquid bulk down 3.8%, indicating broad-based weakness beyond grain. Export slowdown: Overall exports through Russian…
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Ukraine Rapeseed Export Duty Sparks Processing Surge
Bullish: Ukraine’s 10% export duty is driving an 80% year-on-year surge in rapeseed crushing and boosting foreign exchange earnings from higher-value oil and meal exports. Bearish: Reduced availability of raw rapeseed and soybeans for export may tighten supplies for traditional seed-importing markets and pressure raw seed trade flows. Policy-Driven Shift in Ukraine’s Oilseed Market Ukraine’s…
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Kazakhstan Sunflower Export Duty: Cuts Recommended
Policy shift likely: Kazakhstan’s APDC has recommended a gradual reduction of sunflower export duties after finding the current structure inappropriate and harmful to producers. Export decline risk: Sunflower seed exports from Kazakhstan are projected to fall by about 20% by the end of 2025 under existing restrictive measures. Farmer margin squeeze: Pavlodar region growers are…
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Ukraine Oilseed Processing to Hit Record High in 2025
Record Processing: Ukraine targets all-time high processing of 3 million tons of soybeans (60% of crop) and 1.7 million tons of rapeseed (50% of harvest) in 2025/26. Export Revenues Rising: Soybean oil output and exports grew over 22% year-on-year, with foreign exchange earnings from soybean and rapeseed oil up 1.5–2.2 times. Policy-Driven Shift: Export duties…
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Russian Wheat Exports Surge 64% in February
February surge: Rusagrotrans raised February 2025 wheat export forecast to 3.4 million tons, up 125,000 tons and 64% above February 2024. Season lagging: July–January exports total 29.7 million tons, still 8% below last season’s pace. Buyer reshuffle: Turkey and Iran sharply increased purchases, while Egypt and Bangladesh scaled back, signaling shifting demand and rising competition.…
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Global Sugar Prices Plunge to Five-Year Low
Bearish sugar complex: Raw sugar futures hit a five-year low at 13.86 cents/lb, down roughly 35% year-over-year on the back of record harvests and global oversupply. Mixed but resilient oilseeds: Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea held firm at $1,305/t while soybean meal strengthened across major origins, offsetting weakness in palm and rapeseed meal. Firm regional…
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Russian Grain Shipments to Armenia Resume via Azerbaijan
Neutral to Slightly Bullish: Regular grain rail shipments from Russia to Armenia via Azerbaijan diversify export routes and reduce reliance on Black Sea logistics. Logistics Efficiency: Digitization and data exchange with Azerbaijan and Iran enable paperless transit and real-time tracking across the North-South Corridor. Competitive Tariffs: Preferential freight rates on the corridor’s eastern route are…
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Kazakhstan Sunflower Seeds Export Duty to Be Reduced
Key Takeaways Policy Shift: Kazakhstan’s competition authority has recommended a gradual reduction of the €100/ton sunflower seeds export duty after deeming it economically unviable. Farmer Squeeze: Sunflower farmers face losses as processors deduct the full €100/ton duty from domestic purchase prices, while exports have fallen 20% and warehouses are overflowing. Trade Flows: A duty rollback…