Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Australian Canola Exports Plunge 61% as Stocks Tighten
Australian canola exports plunged 61% in October to 62,710 tonnes as stocks tightened ahead of the new-crop harvest. Japan absorbed 91% of Australia’s October canola shipments, underlining its role as the dominant buyer. Russia expanded its grain and oilseed flows to Asia, shipping 3,500 tonnes of oats and 1,300 tonnes of rapeseed to China from…
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Russian Wheat Quality Edge Spurs Regional Demand
Russian edge on quality: Low protein levels (9–10%) in Argentine wheat and quality discounts on Southern Hemisphere supplies support premiums for Russian origin. Stable price spreads: Russian wheat maintains tight price spreads of $3–5/ton versus $15–20/ton in Argentina, signaling reduced basis volatility for buyers. Uzbekistan demand softens: Wheat imports projected at 4.3 MMT in 2025/26,…
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Russian Wheat Export Forecast Held at 44Mt
Bullish: Higher Russian and global wheat production alongside stable EU exports improves overall supply security into 2025/26. Bearish: Steady Russian export forecasts and competitive Black Sea pricing around $263/tonne C&F point to ongoing pressure on international wheat prices. Structural: Russia’s move to anonymous exchange trading via Novorossiysk could create a new benchmark and increase market…
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Uzbekistan Wheat Subsidy Overhaul for 2026
Supportive: Uzbekistan to raise total cotton and grain support to 34.2 trillion soums in 2026, bolstering domestic wheat production. Neutral: Despite higher subsidies and digitalization, the overall impact on Black Sea wheat trade is expected to remain limited. Structural: Shift to a credit rating-based loan system and digital “Agrosubsidia” platform aims to improve financial discipline…
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Ryazan Region Grain Exports Top 51,000 Tons (2025)
Bullish: Stable outbound grain flows from Russia’s central region support continuity of internal supply chains. Bearish: Export volumes remain modest versus Black Sea terminals, limiting upside for regional freight and export margins. Neutral: Overall impact on Black Sea grain benchmarks and freight rates is assessed as neutral. Ryazan Grain and Quarantine Shipments Overview Rosselkhoznadzor reported…
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Russian Soybean Imports Collapse as Harvest Hits Record
Bearish (Imports): Russian soybean imports fell 63% year-on-year in September–November 2025 to just 0.15 million tons as record domestic output reduced external demand. Structural Shift: A record 9.4–9.5 million ton domestic soybean harvest has effectively eliminated Russia’s reliance on Brazilian supplies and reshaped internal logistics. Global Demand Support: China imported 8.11 million tons of soybeans…
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Rostov Corn Production Falls 20% in 2025
Production down 19.3%: Rostov Oblast corn output fell to 233,300 tons in 2025 despite slightly higher yields. Acreage cutbacks: Planted area shrank by 22,000 hectares as farmers reacted to 2024 weather losses and poor marketing conditions. Yield resilience: Corn yields edged up to 26 c/ha, making it one of only two crops in the region…
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Ukrainian Wheat Prices Fall; Kyrgyzstan Expands Winter Crop
Bearish – Ukraine: Wheat export prices at ports fell by USD 3–4/tonne amid softer external demand, with milling wheat at USD 212–220/tonne and feed wheat at USD 204–212/tonne CPT-port. Neutral – Domestic Ukraine: Internal wheat prices in UAH remained broadly stable, supported by processor demand and high logistics costs despite weaker export momentum. Neutral –…
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Kazakhstan Rail Freight to China Surges 11%
Kazakhstan–China rail exports up 11%: Second track on the Dostyk–Moiynty route boosts eastbound freight flows. Stronger rail performance overall: Operational freight turnover reached 264 billion tonne-km, up 7.4% year-on-year. Backbone export cargo growth: Volumes from key enterprises rose to 80 million tonnes, a 6.5% increase. Trade route implications: Additional eastbound capacity may slightly ease pressure…
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Ukraine Barley Exports Drop 37% as Turkey Surges
Bearish: Ukrainian barley exports fell 37% year-on-year to 1.2 million tonnes in July–November 2025/26, pointing to weaker overall demand. Neutral: Export potential is still forecast to rise 11% to 2.5 million tonnes on the back of a larger 5.3 million tonne harvest. Supportive: Turkey increased its purchases 6.4-fold to 233,000 tonnes, helping diversify demand away…