Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Black Sea Sunflower Meal Exports: China’s Big Demand
Bullish – Black Sea Sunflower Meal: China’s domestic sunflower meal covers only 16% of feed demand, creating a structural import gap that supports sustained Black Sea export flows. Neutral/Bearish – Russian Sugar: Export push above 1 million tons is constrained by logistics and weaker global prices, while shrinking farmer margins signal medium-term supply risks. Bullish…
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Russian Sunflower Oil Exports Slip 36% Amid Price Surge
Bullish: Tightening Russian sunflower oil export availability and a 25.8% year-on-year price jump in South Korean imports signal firming global values. Bearish: Russia’s 36% export decline to South Korea and loss of share to Argentina and India highlight competitive pressure in key Asian markets. Bullish: A 27% drop in Russian sunflower oil exports in the…
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Belarus Winter Rapeseed Orlan: 61 c/ha Yields for 2026
Neutral to Moderately Bullish: New winter rapeseed variety “Orlan” offers competitive yields of 61 c/ha and 95–100% winter hardiness, supporting long-term production growth. Structural Support: Belarus advances 145 winter and 68 spring hybrids, with seven under state testing, reducing reliance on imported genetics. Premium Segment Growth: High-oleic variety “Rodnik” targets value-added crushing demand, complementing high-yield…
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Ukrainian corn exports surge 42% in early Feb
Bullish Corn: Ukrainian corn exports surged 42% month-on-month and 41% year-on-year in early February 2026, signaling strong demand and efficient export logistics. Bearish Wheat: Wheat exports dropped 57% year-on-year, highlighting weaker demand or constrained supply relative to other exporters. Grain Complex: Total grain exports (corn, wheat, barley) rose 33% versus January 2026, with corn increasingly…
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Soybean Oil Exports Fall as Buyers Shift to Palm
Shift to palm oil: Major importers in South Asia, including India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, are replacing soybean oil with cheaper palm oil alternatives. Pakistan demand collapse: Pakistan’s soybean oil imports fell 84% year-on-year to just 28,000 tonnes in October–January 2025/26. EU demand support: Ukraine increased soybean oil shipments to the European Union to 169,000 tonnes…
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Ukraine Corn Harvest Resumes in Sumy — AGROTRADE
AGROTRADE Group has resumed corn harvesting in Ukraine’s Sumy region after weather-related delays. About 1,200 hectares remain to be harvested in cluster 3, roughly 10% of the company’s total corn area. Operations are taking place in challenging conditions just 20 km from the Russian border. Market impact is assessed as neutral to slightly bearish due…
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Russian Wheat Prices Plunge 14.7% in Dec 2025
Bearish wheat complex: Russian wheat producer prices dropped 14.7% year-on-year in December 2025 to 12,098 rubles/ton, signaling margin pressure for farmers. Feed grains under pressure: Corn, barley, and oats all declined, reinforcing a broadly weak pricing environment across major cereals. Specialty grains diverge: Millet, buckwheat, and rye recorded notable gains, highlighting distinct supply-demand drivers versus…
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Ukraine Agricultural Exports Drop 9% in 2025
Exports Down but Still Dominant: Ukraine’s agricultural exports fell 9% to $22.71 billion in 2025 but still accounted for 56% of total exports. Shift to Value-Added Goods: Processed agricultural products grew to about 20% of total agri exports, signaling a move toward higher-margin, value-added trade. Imports Rising: Agricultural imports rose 13% to $9.12 billion, pushing total agri…
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Ukrainian Sunflower Seed Prices Rise as Crush Demand Soars
Bullish: Ukrainian sunflower seed prices rose to UAH 29,000–29,800/t CPT on tight farmer supply and strong crusher demand driven by firm export oil values. Bullish: Healthy crush margins and a UAH 1,400–1,700/t premium for high-oil seeds signal persistent competition among processors for limited stocks. Bullish: Farmer selling has resumed but remains insufficient to cover crushers’…
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Brazil soybean harvest projected at 178M tons
Higher Brazilian output: Soybean harvest projected at 178 million tons in 2025/26, up 6.5 million tons year-on-year, boosting global supply. Expanded acreage: Additional 1.5 million hectares of soybean plantings offset lower average productivity. Mato Grosso progress: Harvest 47% complete with yields in line with optimistic expectations. Corn decline: Brazil’s corn harvest seen slightly lower at 138.4 million tons, down…