Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Novorossiysk Spot Wheat Trading Launches on NCE
Structural shift: NCE launches spot trading for Class 4 wheat (12.5% protein) at Novorossiysk starting January 19, 2026, using a bilateral anonymous auction format. Logistics split: Two separate order books for CPT Novorossiysk deliveries: rail (70-ton minimum) and truck (30-ton minimum) to three key terminals. Transparency boost: Platform aims to enhance price discovery and create…
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Ukraine Agricultural Exports Drop €2.2B — EU Policy Risk
Bearish: Ukraine’s agricultural export revenues declined by €2.2 billion as of December 1, 2025, with 95% of the loss linked to reduced access to the EU market. Bearish: Unpredictable EU trade policy for Ukrainian agricultural imports is undermining pricing visibility and forward freight planning. Neutral/Structural: Ukraine must implement 20 EU production standards by end-2028, creating both…
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Exoil Oilseed Processing to Double in 2026 Despite Squeeze
Capacity Expansion: Exoil Group’s new soybean and rapeseed plant is set to double total oilseed processing output from 2026, with potential annual value up to 50 billion rubles. Margin Compression: Southern drought, export duties on oil and meal, inflationary costs, and high interest rates are squeezing processors’ profitability, keeping many near breakeven. Bearish Outlook for Processors:…
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Argentina Wheat Harvest Crushes Global Prices
Bearish for Black Sea Wheat: Argentina’s record 27.1–27.7 MMT wheat crop and aggressive FOB offers at $206–209/ton for January delivery are undercutting Black Sea, French, and U.S. origins. Neutral to Bullish for Russian Logistics: Russia’s National Commodity Exchange is launching a new wheat spot trading platform with priority rail access to Novorossiysk, potentially strengthening export…
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Novorossiysk Wheat Spot Trading Launch via NTB Exchange
Structural shift: NTB launches spot trading for 12.5% protein fourth-class wheat on a CPT Novorossiysk basis from January 19, 2026, with priority rail allocation for exchange trades. Logistics incentive: Separate order books with 70 t (rail) and 30 t (road) minimum lots aim to boost liquidity and address Black Sea transport bottlenecks. Oilseed strength: Black…
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Russian Grain Exports Stabilize at Five-Year Average
Rice policy shift: Russia ends its paddy rice export ban and introduces a quota system, signaling confidence in domestic supply and renewed export ambitions. Grain exports stabilize: 2025 grain exports projected at 53–55 million tons, aligning with the five-year average but below the 2023–2024 record, capping upside for freight demand. Logistics expansion: FESCO’s management of…
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Russian Sunflower Oil Prices: Domestic Up, Export Down
Domestic bullish: Russian unrefined sunflower oil prices rose 7% year-on-year in November 2025 to RUB 86,426/ton, signaling stronger local demand or tighter supply. Export bearish: Export prices declined 4% year-on-year to RUB 94,317/ton, narrowing the export premium and potentially curbing producers’ incentive to prioritize foreign sales. Spread compression: The price gap between export and domestic…
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Brazil Soybean Production Forecast Up to 180.4M
Higher Brazilian output: AgRural raised Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 180.4 million tons, 1.9 million tons above the November estimate and 5.2% above last season. Weather-dependent outlook: Favorable December weather supports the upgrade, but final volumes hinge on conditions through February and into March for later areas. Pressure on Black Sea exporters: A larger Brazilian crop…
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Ukrainian Feed Barley Prices Spike Amid Tight Supply
Feed barley prices in Ukraine turned higher, with domestic bids at UAH 9,100–10,400/t CPT amid tightening grain availability. Port prices remained stable at USD 210–220/t CPT-port despite weakness in the export sector and related commodity markets. Farmer selling reluctance and trader demand to cover existing contracts are underpinning a bullish short-term outlook for Ukrainian feed…
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Russian Wheat Exports Hit 26.6Mt in H1 – Prices Ease
Export Pace: Russia shipped 26.6 million tonnes of wheat in July–December, above the five-year average but 8.5% below last season’s record, signaling solid yet moderating export momentum. Price Pressure: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB values eased to $227–228/t amid abundant global supplies and weaker competing origins, creating a neutral to slightly bearish price backdrop. Global…