Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Russian Grain Export Duties Remain Zero – Trade Impact
Policy Continuity: Russia maintains zero export duties on wheat, barley, and corn for May 14–19, extending an export-friendly regime for the fourth consecutive week. Price Softening: Indicative prices for wheat, barley, and corn edged lower week-on-week, signaling mildly softer domestic market values. Freight Impact: Neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea freight as competitive Russian…
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Black Sea rapeseed exports plunge 42% in March
Exports undershoot: March rapeseed and canola exports from seven key suppliers totaled 1.75 million tonnes, slipping below expectations and prior-year volumes. Black Sea weakness: Ukraine’s 2025/26 rapeseed exports plunged 42% year-on-year to 1.71 million tonnes, reducing Black Sea presence in global trade flows. High stocks: Canadian and Australian inventories remain elevated at 10 million tonnes and 3.7 million tonnes…
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Ukrainian Sunflower Seed Prices Ease as Oil Drags
Bullish: Sunflower seed prices initially strengthened, with some bids exceeding UAH 34,000/ton CPT amid strong crusher demand and a wider market price range. Bearish: A USD 15–20/ton drop in sunflower oil export prices pressured crushers to cut seed bids by UAH 100–200/ton, sharply squeezing processing margins. Ukrainian Sunflower Seed Market Update Ukrainian sunflower seed prices…
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Western Australia Barley Acreage Set to Rise 6%
Bearish for global feed barley: Western Australia’s barley area is set to rise 6% year-on-year to 2.17 million hectares, adding potential exportable supply and pressuring prices into late 2024. Bearish for wheat: Wheat plantings in Western Australia are forecast to fall 13% to 3.73 million hectares as farmers pivot toward lower-fertilizer barley and higher-priced canola.…
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Ukraine grain exports fall as May shipments slow
Export slowdown: Ukraine’s total grain and legume exports are down 16.6% year-on-year to 30.997 million tons as of May 8, 2025. Corn-dominated mix: Corn accounts for 56.5% of shipments at 17.503 million tons, but all major crops show notable year-on-year declines. May pace deterioration: Early May exports dropped 57.7% to 798 thousand tons versus 1.885…
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South Korea Feed Corn Tender: 136,000t at ~$270
South Korean feed buyer NOFI secured 136,000 tons of feed corn via an international tender at around $270/ton C&F for September arrivals. The tender covered only 66% of the initially planned 207,000 tons, hinting at either limited seller availability or buyer resistance at current price levels. Contracts were split between Mitsui and Cargill, with small…
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Canadian Canola Exports Surge, Reshaping Trade
Canadian exports surge: Canola shipments reached 1 million tonnes in March 2025, with Q1 2025 exports up 10% year-on-year at 2.6 million tonnes. China demand recovers: March exports to China hit 369,000 tonnes, an 11‑month high, following reduced import duties under a new bilateral trade agreement. EU inflows still elevated: Pre‑normalization price discounts drove record…
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Ukraine Feed Corn Prices Surge on Tight Supply
Prices Surge: Ukrainian feed corn rose by 100–200 UAH/t this week, with most bids at 9,600–10,300 UAH/t as of May 8. Regional Premiums: Southern Ukraine recorded peak prices up to 11,200 UAH/t CPT on strong domestic and trader demand. Tight Supply: Limited farmer selling and firm export values are tightening the balance and underpinning a…
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Odesa Grain Rail Unloading Rises Amid Danube Collapse
Greater Odesa recovery: Average daily grain railcar unloading at Greater Odesa ports edged up to 1,245 units (+12 w/w), with loading closely matched at 1,244 units/day, signaling balanced flows. Pipeline easing: Grain wagons en route to Greater Odesa fell by 270 units to 8,431, which may reflect both improved logistics and a potential softening in…
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IKAR Cuts Russian Wheat Exports Forecast to 44.5Mt
Export Forecast Cut: IKAR reduced Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export outlook to 44.5 million tonnes from 46 million tonnes. Margin Pressure: Strong ruble, low global wheat prices, and higher inland logistics costs are squeezing exporter margins. Logistics Shift: Wheat stockpiles have moved inland from key southern export hubs after drought-related production losses. Market Tone: Overall impact…