Author: Viktoriia Ray
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Black Sea Sunflower Oil Retreats — Price Outlook
Bullish: Rapeseed oil and meal led gains, with EU rapeseed complex hitting weekly highs and palm oil strengthening across origins. Bearish: Black Sea sunflower oil and Western Hemisphere soybean markets softened, highlighting pressure on export-oriented origins. Mixed: Soybean oil and meal showed regional divergence, creating potential arbitrage opportunities between EU, American, and Asian markets. Global…
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Kazakhstan Grain Exports Surge 18.6% — Trade Boost
Central Asian demand surges: Kazakhstan’s grain exports rose 18.6% year-on-year to 5.1 million tonnes, led by strong growth in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Afghanistan. Shift to value-added in Russia: Russia’s average food export value per tonne increased 25% in 2025 as the country pivots from bulk grain to higher-margin processed products. Freight mix changing: Outlook is…
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Kemerovo Rapeseed Oil Export to China Signals Market Shift
First exports to China: Kemerovo Oblast shipped 350 tons of rapeseed oil to China in 2025, opening a new export channel. Major processing expansion: Rusagro’s new Kuzbass plant is set to process ~1 million tons of rapeseed annually by 2027, yielding 600–700 thousand tons of oil. Production growth target: Regional authorities plan to increase rapeseed…
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Russian Rapeseed Export Quota Expanded – 18,800t Added
Russia extends Trans-Baikal sunflower seed and rapeseed export quotas to August 31, 2026, preserving preferential access to Asian buyers. Rapeseed export capacity from the region nearly triples to 28,251 tonnes, leveraging record national rapeseed output. Strong duty differential (6.5% vs. 30%) guarantees full quota utilization and supports competitive pricing versus other Black Sea origins. Market…
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Jordan Wheat Tender: COFCO Wins 60,000t at $261/ton
Competitive pricing: Jordan secured 60,000 tons of milling wheat at $261.25/ton C&F, the lowest bid among four global traders. Partial volume awarded: Only half of the planned 120,000-ton tender was purchased, signaling cautious demand. Benchmark for April: The winning price sets a reference level for regional wheat valuations for April 2026 shipment. Neutral to slightly…
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Palm Oil Exports Drop – Price Competitiveness Rises
Exports Softening: Malaysian palm oil exports fell 9.7% year-over-year in 2025 to 15.26 million tonnes amid weaker demand from key buyers including India, China, the EU, and Turkey. Price Competitiveness: Palm oil now trades at a steep discount of $250/tonne to sunflower oil and $100/tonne to soybean oil, enhancing its appeal in price-sensitive markets. Short-Term…
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Australian Canola Production Surges, Pressures Rapeseed
Bearish supply shock: Australian canola output reached 7.65 million tonnes in 2025/26, 420,000 tonnes (5.8%) above ABARES’ December forecast, adding unexpected supply to global markets. Record Western Australian crop: Western Australia’s all‑time high production significantly boosts raw material availability for canola meal processors. Weak EU demand: EU rapeseed import demand has fallen 43%, sharply reducing…
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US Soybean Exports Rise as China Buys 12 MMT
Bullish US–China trade: China completed 12 MMT of US soybean purchases and is expected to buy 25 MMT annually through 2028, supporting US export demand. Bearish Brazil & Black Sea: Brazilian exports to China are projected to fall 10 MMT YoY to 77 MMT, increasing price competition and pressure on alternative origins, including Black Sea…
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Black Sea Wheat Prices Rise as Supply Tightens
Black Sea wheat prices firmed: Russian 12.5% protein wheat rose to $227.50/ton FOB and Ukrainian 11.5% to $227/ton on strong demand and constrained supply. Export flows pressured by weather: Russian January exports are still projected at 2.8–3.0 MMT, but port disruptions have forced analysts to trim earlier forecasts. Domestic Russian prices supported by cheaper freight:…
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Chornomorsk Port Concession Draws 40+ Bidders
Chornomorsk port appeal: Over 40 international bidders signal strong interest in Ukraine’s largest wartime port PPP, with pre-qualification due by March 4, 2025. Capacity boost: Concession plan targets 250,000 TEU containers and 3 million tons of bulk cargo within three years, supporting over 1,000 jobs and around $1 billion in budget revenues. Russian dairy resilience:…