- Kazakhstan expands value-added wheat exports: First wheat gluten shipment to Japan and new market entry into Saudi Arabia support long-term demand for processed wheat products.
- Mixed global wheat futures: CBOT March wheat eased 0.49% while MATIF milling wheat was unchanged, signaling broadly adequate global supply.
- Black Sea exports steady but uneven: Russian wheat shipments remained robust at ~1.2 million tons, while Ukrainian grain exports fell year-on-year to 1.4 million tons.
- EU exports slightly softer: EU soft wheat shipments reached 11.8 million tons versus 12.0 million tons a year earlier, pointing to marginally weaker export pace.
- U.S. weather adds downside risk: Heavy rainfall forecast for key winter wheat regions boosts crop moisture, limiting near-term upside in prices.
- Alternative demand channels emerging: Kazakhstan’s bioethanol negotiations with China highlight potential new outlets for regional wheat beyond food markets.
Kazakhstan’s Processed Wheat Export Expansion
Kazakhstan has started exporting highly processed wheat products to Japan, with BioOperations delivering the first wheat gluten cargo in December 2025. The Ministry of Agriculture expects annual wheat gluten exports to Japan to exceed 2,000 tons. In 2025, Kazakhstan also entered the Saudi Arabian market for the first time, expanding its processed wheat product reach to 34 countries.
BioOperations, the country’s only producer of wheat gluten and starch, operates with an annual processing capacity of more than 340,000 tons. The company exports to Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and the Americas, including India, the United States, Colombia, China, Turkey, Norway, CIS countries, and the EU. BioOperations is negotiating bioethanol supplies to China for use in biofuel applications, signaling diversification of wheat-based demand.
Global Wheat Futures and Price Snapshot
| Contract / Market | Delivery Month | Settlement | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT Soft Red Winter Wheat | March 2026 | $186.56/ton | -0.49% |
| Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat | March 2026 | $190.97/ton | N/A |
| Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat | March 2026 | $207.51/ton | +1.75 cents |
| MATIF Milling Wheat (Paris) | March 2026 | €189.50/ton ($222.21/ton) |
Unchanged (+0.70% in USD terms) |
Global wheat futures traded mixed on Wednesday, January 21, 2026. CBOT soft winter wheat for March delivery closed at $186.56/ton, down 0.49%. Kansas City hard winter wheat settled at $190.97/ton, while Minneapolis hard spring wheat closed at $207.51/ton, up 1.75 cents. MATIF March milling wheat remained flat at €189.50/ton, equivalent to about $222.21/ton.
Export Flows: Black Sea and EU
| Region / Exporter | Period | Commodity | Export Volume | Year-Ago Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | Jan 1–19, 2026 | Wheat | ≈1.2 million tons | N/A |
| Ukraine | Jan 1–16, 2026 | Grain (all) | 1.4 million tons | 1.7 million tons |
| EU (Soft Wheat) | Jul 1, 2025–Jan 15, 2026 | Soft Wheat | 11.8 million tons | 12.0 million tons |
Black Sea export activity remained firm, with Russia shipping roughly 1.2 million tons of wheat between January 1 and 19, according to Rusagrotrans data. Ukraine exported 1.4 million tons of grain from January 1 to 16, down from 1.7 million tons in the same period a year earlier, reflecting ongoing logistical and production constraints.
EU soft wheat exports reached 11.8 million tons between July 1 and January 15, slightly below the 12.0 million tons recorded a year earlier, suggesting a modestly weaker export pace amid competitive global supplies.
Weather Outlook and Market Implications
NOAA’s 7-day forecast points to heavy rainfall from the Southern Plains through the East Coast of the United States, adding much-needed moisture to winter wheat-growing areas. Improved soil moisture conditions generally support yield prospects, reinforcing a neutral to slightly bearish tone for global wheat prices in the near term.
Market Analysis
Kazakhstan’s shift toward value-added processing, including wheat gluten and potentially bioethanol, reduces dependence on raw grain exports while broadening its presence in high-margin markets such as Japan and Saudi Arabia. This diversification can gradually reshape regional trade flows, though it does not immediately tighten global wheat supply.
From a price perspective, the combination of slightly weaker Ukrainian and EU exports, steady Russian shipments, and favorable U.S. weather keeps the global balance in a neutral to slightly bearish posture. CBOT softness alongside flat European futures indicates that, for now, ample supplies and improving crop conditions are capping rallies. Traders will look to the delayed USDA export sales report for clearer signals on demand strength and any potential shift in sentiment.
Source: Market Data
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