- Bearish: Ukraine’s EU sunflower meal market share collapsed to 34% from 63% as Argentina seized 55% with more competitive offers.
- Bearish: Total EU sunflower meal imports fell 23% to 1.7 million tonnes amid stronger competition from EU rapeseed meal and Canadian canola meal.
- Bearish: Weaker EU export demand threatens Black Sea crushing margins and could pressure domestic sunflower seed prices in Ukraine.
EU Sunflower Meal Import Shift
The EU sunflower meal import landscape has shifted sharply in the 2025/26 marketing year. From July 1, 2025 to mid-May 2026, total EU sunflower meal imports declined to around 1.7 million tonnes, down from 2.2 million tonnes in the same period a year earlier. This 23% reduction reflects both changing supplier dynamics and increased competition from alternative protein meals.
Supplier Market Share: Ukraine vs Argentina
Argentina has emerged as the dominant sunflower meal supplier to the EU, securing roughly 55% of imports so far in 2025/26—almost double its 28% share last season. Ukraine, traditionally the leading supplier, has seen its share slashed to 34%, down from 63% in 2024/25. The shift underscores Argentina’s current pricing advantage and the vulnerability of Black Sea exporters to aggressive South American competition.
| Period | Total EU Sunflower Meal Imports (mln t) | Change vs Prior Season | Ukraine Share | Argentina Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 (Jul–mid May) | 2.2 | – | 63% | 28% |
| 2025/26 (Jul–mid May) | 1.7 | -23% | 34% | 55% |
Competition from Rapeseed and Canola Meal
The decline in sunflower meal imports is closely linked to stronger competition from rapeseed and canola meal in EU feed rations. Larger domestic rapeseed crops and higher crushing volumes within the EU, alongside increased Canadian canola meal arrivals, have displaced sunflower meal in key livestock and poultry formulas. This structural demand shift is reducing the EU’s reliance on imported sunflower meal, even when prices are competitive.
Market Impact and Outlook
For Black Sea sunflower seed crushers, these developments are a clear bearish signal. Lower EU offtake and a loss of market share will pressure crushing margins and may weigh on domestic sunflower seed prices in Ukraine. Exporters face a dual challenge: undercutting South American offers while also competing with abundant rapeseed and canola meal. Traders should watch whether Ukrainian processors adjust pricing and logistics to regain ground in 2026/27, though persistent rapeseed meal competition could cap any recovery in sunflower meal demand.
Source: Market Data
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