- Record exports: Argentina is projected to ship 1.18 million tonnes of sunflower oil between March and August, up 24% year-on-year.
- Stronger crushing: March sunflower seed crushing hit a record 565,000 tonnes versus 372,000 tonnes a year earlier, with elevated rates extending into April.
- Rising full-season exports: 2025/26 sunflower oil exports could reach 1.93 million tonnes, 33% above 2024/25 levels.
- Indian demand: Robust buying from India is expected to absorb most of Argentina’s sunflower oil exports.
- Pressure on Black Sea: Higher Argentine flows are neutral to bearish for Black Sea sunflower oil, pressuring premiums and market share in Asia.
Argentina Sunflower Oil Market Update
Oil World projects Argentina will export approximately 1.18 million tonnes of sunflower oil between March and August, a record volume for the period and a 24% increase versus the same months last year. This export surge is supported by exceptionally strong domestic crushing activity and robust overseas demand, particularly from India.
Argentina processed a record 565,000 tonnes of sunflower seeds in March, sharply higher than the 372,000 tonnes crushed in March 2024. Preliminary indications suggest that these elevated processing rates continued through April, underpinning the expansion in sunflower oil output.
From March through August, total Argentine sunflower oil production is forecast at 1.47 million tonnes, up from 1.26 million tonnes in the same period a year earlier. For the full 2025/26 marketing season, production could rise to 2.42 million tonnes, compared with 1.98 million tonnes in 2024/25, allowing exports to climb to an estimated 1.93 million tonnes versus 1.45 million tonnes previously.
India is expected to absorb the majority of Argentina’s sunflower oil exports over the coming months. This strong import demand, combined with higher Argentine availability, is reshaping trade flows in the global sunflower oil market.
Key Figures: Argentina Sunflower Oil Outlook
| Period / Metric | 2024/25 | 2025/26 (Forecast) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar–Aug Production (mn tonnes) | 1.26 | 1.47 | +0.21 (+16.7%) |
| Mar–Aug Exports (mn tonnes) | 0.95 | 1.18 | +0.23 (+24.2%) |
| Full-Season Production (mn tonnes) | 1.98 | 2.42 | +0.44 (+22.2%) |
| Full-Season Exports (mn tonnes) | 1.45 | 1.93 | +0.48 (+33.1%) |
| Sunflower Seed Crushing in March (mn tonnes) | 0.372 | 0.565 | +0.193 (+51.9%) |
Impact on Black Sea Sunflower Oil
The projected expansion of Argentine sunflower oil exports is neutral to bearish for Black Sea suppliers. A 33% year-on-year increase in Argentina’s full-season exports heightens competition in the key Indian market and broader Asian destinations, where buyers are highly price-sensitive.
This additional South American supply may weigh on global sunflower oil premiums and challenge Ukrainian and Russian market share, particularly if Argentine offers remain competitive on a FOB basis. Traders should closely monitor how rising Argentine flows influence pricing dynamics out of Black Sea ports over the coming months.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply