- Russian exports to China surge: Corn shipments from Russia to China jumped 116% year-on-year to about 330,000 tons from September 2025 to mid-April 2026.
- Chinese import demand recovering from lows: While total Chinese corn imports dropped to 2.1 million tons in 2024/25 from 24.7 million tons in 2023/24, USDA projects a rebound to 8 million tons in 2025/26.
- Brazil remains the dominant supplier: Brazil controls roughly 73% of China’s corn imports, shipping around 1.6 million tons between September 2025 and March 2026.
- Moderately supportive for Black Sea exporters: Russia’s growing presence in China, backed by larger export quotas and diversification policies, is moderately bullish for Black Sea corn export demand.
Russian Corn Exports to China: Rapid Growth from a Low Base
Russian corn exporters have sharply expanded their presence in the Chinese market in the current marketing year. From September 2025 to mid-April 2026, shipments to China reached about 330,000 tons, up 116% from 153,000 tons in the same period a year earlier, according to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture’s federal center “Agroexport.” For comparison, Russia’s entire 2024/25 marketing-year corn exports to China totaled 358,000 tons, underscoring how quickly volumes have scaled this season.
The expansion is being driven by three main factors: a partial recovery in Chinese import demand, Beijing’s strategic goal of diversifying its grain suppliers, and a sizable corn export quota allocated to Russia for 2026. This combination has allowed Russian exporters to strengthen their foothold despite intense competition from South American origins.
China’s Corn Import Landscape
Even with Russia’s gains, China’s overall corn import volumes remain far below recent peaks. Customs data show imports of just 2.1 million tons in 2024/25, a steep drop from 24.7 million tons in 2023/24. The contraction reflects China’s policy focus on domestic production, inventory management, and substitution with alternative feed grains where possible.
Looking ahead, the USDA projects a partial recovery, with Chinese corn imports seen reaching around 8 million tons in 2025/26. This rebound would be supported by steady growth in domestic consumption and a need to balance internal supply with strategic stock levels, potentially opening more room for both traditional and emerging suppliers.
Supplier Dynamics: Brazil Dominates, Russia Gains
Brazil remains firmly entrenched as China’s primary corn supplier. From September 2025 through March 2026, Brazilian exporters shipped roughly 1.6 million tons to China, nearly three times last year’s levels over the same period, according to MDIC data. Brazil’s share of Chinese corn imports rose to about 73% between September 2025 and February 2026, up 20 percentage points year-on-year, cementing its leadership in the market.
Russia’s growing share, however, signals a structural shift in China’s supply strategy. While Russian volumes are still modest relative to Brazil’s, the accelerated growth underscores China’s intention to diversify supply channels, reduce reliance on any single origin, and leverage competitive Black Sea and South American offers as global trade flows evolve.
| Item | Period | Volume (million tons) | Change / Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russian corn exports to China | Sep 2024 – mid-Apr 2025 | 0.153 | Base period |
| Russian corn exports to China | Sep 2025 – mid-Apr 2026 | 0.330 | +116% year-on-year |
| Russian corn exports to China (full MY) | 2024/25 | 0.358 | Reference for current season |
| China total corn imports | 2023/24 | 24.7 | High base |
| China total corn imports | 2024/25 | 2.1 | Sharp decline |
| Forecast China corn imports (USDA) | 2025/26 | 8.0 | Projected recovery |
| Brazil share of China corn imports | Sep 2025 – Feb 2026 | — | ~73% market share |
| Brazil corn exports to China | Sep 2025 – Mar 2026 | 1.6 | ~3x year-on-year |
Market Impact and Outlook for Black Sea Corn
The surge in Russian shipments is neutral to moderately bullish for Black Sea corn exporters. Gaining a larger foothold in China at a time of subdued global demand enhances Russia’s pricing power and supports regional export demand. If USDA’s forecast for an 8 million ton Chinese import program in 2025/26 materializes, the existing infrastructure and trade relationships will position Russian suppliers to capture incremental volumes.
Nonetheless, upside remains constrained by China’s policy emphasis on domestic corn production and stock management. Traders should monitor how Russian offers stack up against Brazilian and other South American origins on a delivered basis, particularly as freight costs, currency moves, and export policies shift. The key question for the market is whether Russia can maintain or expand its share as total Chinese import volumes normalize higher from today’s compressed levels.
Source: Market Data
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