- Global crush expands: 2025/26 global soybean crushing forecast raised to 100.26 mln t, up 3.9% year-on-year and 2 mln t versus prior estimate.
- U.S. strength: U.S. crushing in Sept–Mar reaches 42.6 mln t (+8.8% y/y), supported by expanded capacity and stronger soybean oil and meal demand.
- South America resilient: Brazilian and Argentine crush outperform expectations on favorable margins, with Brazil up on the year and Argentina only slightly behind last season.
- Black Sea impact: Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea soybean meal exports as increased American and South American meal supplies heighten competition.
Global Soybean Crushing Outlook
Oil World has revised its 2025/26 global soybean crushing forecast upward by 2.0 mln t to 100.26 mln t, a 3.9% increase from the previous season’s record of 96.46 mln t. The revision reflects stronger-than-expected processing activity in key producing regions, underpinned by favorable crushing margins and robust demand for both soybean oil and meal.
U.S. Soybean Crushing and Meal Demand
| Period / Indicator | 2025/26 | 2024/25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. crush – March (mln t) | 6.30 | 5.63 | +0.67 |
| U.S. crush – February (mln t) | 5.83 | n/a | n/a |
| U.S. crush – Sept–Mar (mln t) | 42.60 | 39.16 | +3.44 |
| U.S. soybean meal consumption – Oct–Mar (mln t) | n/a | n/a | +1.40 (+8% y/y) |
U.S. soybean crushing reached 6.30 mln t in March, up from 5.83 mln t in February and well above the 5.63 mln t processed in March 2024. The month-on-month and year-on-year gains reflect expanded domestic crushing capacity and rising demand for soybean oil. Over September–March of the 2025/26 marketing year, U.S. soybean processing totaled 42.6 mln t versus 39.16 mln t a year earlier. Soybean meal consumption in October–March rose by 1.4 mln t, or 8% year-on-year, supported by both domestic use and export shipments.
South American Processing Trends
| Country / Period | 2025/26 (mln t) | 2024/25 (mln t) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil crush – March | 5.50 | 5.26 | +0.24 |
| Brazil crush – February | 4.25 | n/a | n/a |
| Brazil crush – season to date | 33.33 | 31.94 | +1.39 |
| Argentina crush – March | 2.90 | 3.23 | -0.33 |
| Argentina crush – February | 1.99 | n/a | n/a |
| Argentina crush – season to date | 22.43 | 24.14 | -1.71 |
South American crushing activity continues to outperform earlier projections. In Brazil, March crush reached 5.50 mln t, up sharply from 4.25 mln t in February and above 5.26 mln t in March 2024. Season-to-date volumes climbed to 33.33 mln t versus 31.94 mln t in the comparable 2024/25 period, reflecting favorable processing margins and strong demand for both oil and meal. Argentina processed 2.90 mln t in March, up from 1.99 mln t in February but below 3.23 mln t a year earlier. Season-to-date crush in Argentina stands at 22.43 mln t, down from 24.14 mln t last year, yet still contributing significantly to regional product availability.
Implications for Black Sea Soybean Meal Exports
The expansion of crushing capacity and utilization in the Americas, combined with stronger Asian processing, is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea soybean meal exporters. Increased U.S. and South American meal supplies heighten competition in key import markets and may exert downward pressure on Black Sea-origin prices. Nevertheless, global soybean crushing is projected to grow by 3.9% year-on-year, indicating sustained demand that should offer baseline support for all origins. Black Sea logistics and marketing teams should closely track whether current favorable crushing economics persist, as prolonged high global production could intensify competitive pressure on regional export programs.
Source: Market Data
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