- Forecast Upgrade: Kazakhstan raised its 2025/26 durum wheat export forecast by 24% to 460,000 tonnes on strong first-half shipments.
- Stronger Demand: First-half exports climbed 31% year-on-year to 275,600 tonnes, with Italy remaining the dominant buyer.
- Diversifying Buyers: New markets including Tunisia, Portugal, Afghanistan, and Belgium are helping reduce export concentration risk.
- Mixed Regional Flows: Turkey sharply increased purchases, while shipments to Latvia, Tajikistan, and Poland declined or halted.
- Market Implication: Robust mid-season performance supports a neutral-to-bullish outlook for Black Sea durum wheat through the rest of the marketing year.
Kazakhstan Durum Wheat Export Forecast Raised
The Grain Union of Kazakhstan increased its durum wheat export forecast for the 2025/26 marketing year by 24% to 460,000 tonnes, up 110,000 tonnes from the previous estimate. The revision reflects accelerated shipment activity in the first half of the season, according to comments shared by Yevgeny Karabanov, Head of the Legislative Assembly’s Analytics Committee, via Telegram.
First-Half Export Performance
Durum wheat exports in February 2026 (excluding EAEU countries) totaled 104,700 tonnes, a 14% decline from January 2026 but almost double the volume shipped in January 2025. Cumulatively, exports in the first half of the 2025/26 marketing year reached 275,600 tonnes, a 31% increase compared with the same period a year earlier.
Buyer Breakdown and Market Diversification
Italy remained the primary destination for Kazakh durum wheat, importing 186,000 tonnes in the first half of 2025/26, a 17% year-on-year increase. Turkey sharply expanded its purchases to 21,600 tonnes, a 27-fold rise, while Uzbekistan boosted imports by 17% to 2,700 tonnes.
At the same time, shipments to certain traditional buyers weakened. Exports to Latvia fell to 13,800 tonnes, down by a factor of 2.26, Tajikistan’s imports declined 30% to 4,300 tonnes, and Poland received no durum wheat versus 3,000 tonnes in the previous marketing year.
Kazakhstan also opened new trade channels during the current marketing year, supplying Tunisia with 23,600 tonnes, Portugal with 7,700 tonnes, Afghanistan with 5,400 tonnes, and Belgium with 4,700 tonnes of durum wheat.
Export Volumes by Destination (First Half 2025/26 MY)
| Destination | Export Volume (tonnes) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | 186,000 | +17% |
| Turkey | 21,600 | 27-fold increase |
| Uzbekistan | 2,700 | +17% |
| Latvia | 13,800 | Down 2.26x |
| Tajikistan | 4,300 | -30% |
| Poland | 0 | Down from 3,000 tonnes |
| Tunisia | 23,600 | New destination |
| Portugal | 7,700 | New destination |
| Afghanistan | 5,400 | New destination |
| Belgium | 4,700 | New destination |
Market Outlook
The 24% upward revision in Kazakhstan’s durum export forecast underscores firm demand from Mediterranean buyers and expanding interest from emerging markets. Italy’s sustained purchases and Turkey’s aggressive buying highlight Kazakhstan’s competitive position in the global durum trade. While reduced flows to parts of Eastern Europe warrant monitoring, broader geographic diversification is lowering concentration risk. Overall, the strong first-half performance supports a neutral-to-bullish outlook for Black Sea durum wheat availability and price dynamics through the remainder of the 2025/26 marketing year.
Source: Market Data
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