Category: Wheat

Ukrainian wheat prices moved within a previously established range, reflecting mixed but contained market signals. Sufficient grain supply contrasts with uneven demand, as some buyers raised bids for large volumes while overall trader interest stayed muted. CPT-port bids held steady, with Class 2 milling wheat at $215–223/t and feed wheat at $208–216/t, indicating a broadly…

Bullish: Fresh import demand from Algeria’s international tender supports global wheat prices, especially for Black Sea origins. Bearish: The EU’s larger soft wheat harvest and higher export forecast increase export competition and pressure prices lower. Trade Flows: Reduced EU wheat import needs limit potential outlets for exporters targeting the bloc. Market Update Algeria’s state grain…

Bearish supply signal: Novorossiysk wheat loadings surged to 2.44 MMT in November, reinforcing abundant Russian export availability. Strong regional demand: Iran, Egypt, and Turkey led buying, highlighting persistent MENA demand for competitively priced Russian wheat. Price pressure on rivals: Robust Black Sea logistics and aggressive Russian exports continue to weigh on alternative origins and global…

Russian dominance: Russia’s share of Israel’s wheat imports has surged to 89% in 2024/25 from 39% in 2020/21, cementing its role as the key supplier and price-setter. Stable demand growth: USDA projects Israel’s wheat imports to rise to 2.15 million tons in 2025/26, supporting sustained demand for Russian exports. Pressure on rivals: Romanian and Ukrainian…

Key Takeaways Bearish Pressure: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) raised its 2025/26 Argentine wheat production forecast by 1.5 MMT to a record 25.5 MMT, adding significant export competition to global markets. Price Reaction: Paris (MATIF) December milling wheat futures fell to €187.25/t ($217.15/t), while Chicago (CBOT) December SRW wheat in a shortened session closed…

Neutral: Kazakhstan–Kuwait talks are at an early stage with no confirmed tenders or volumes, leaving near-term Black Sea wheat pricing largely unchanged. Structural: A potential long-term supply channel to Kuwait would diversify Kazakh grain exports and create a new, consistent Gulf demand center. Strategic: Any future Kazakh flows to Kuwait could redirect volumes away from…

Bearish (spot): Russia’s wheat export duty will be slashed to 8.9 rubles/ton for Dec 3–9, 2025, boosting export competitiveness and pressuring near-term Black Sea prices. Bullish (new-crop): Early 2026 Russian wheat harvest forecasts of 82–90 MMT, with a PIC consensus of 85.9 MMT, point to tighter future supply and support for forward pricing. Neutral for…

Key Takeaways Initial monitoring shows Russia’s wheat quality is higher than last year. The share of milling wheat increased to 78%, up from 77% in 2023. Wheat with 12.5% protein rose to 28 million tonnes (MT). High-quality “strong wheat” output increased to 6.3 MT, up from 4.1 MT. Overall, improved wheat quality may impact global…