Category: Wheat

Bearish wheat: Australia’s 37 MMT wheat crop (+34% vs 10-year average) and 27 MMT exports in 2025/26 add significant export competition. Bearish barley: Record 15.5 MMT barley crop and 8.6 MMT exports intensify pressure on Black Sea barley values in shared Asian and MENA markets. Global spreads at risk: Higher Australian availability could compress global…

Prices Stable: Ukrainian class 3 milling wheat export prices held steady at $206-214/t CPT Greater Odessa and $206-212/t CPT Danube ports as of January 22, 2026. Weak Demand: Low trading activity persists due to reduced competitiveness of Ukrainian wheat in international markets. Mild Pressure: Some exporters trimmed purchase prices after covering earlier export commitments, keeping…

Yields Plateaued: Northwestern European wheat yields have stagnated around 7 t/ha since the mid-1990s despite higher genetic and climate potential. Farm Management Bottleneck: Fertilization, plant protection, and tillage practices are the main constraints on yield growth, not climate or varietal limits. Climate a Net Positive: Climate change has contributed an additional 26–60 kg/ha per year…

Kazakhstan expands value-added wheat exports: First wheat gluten shipment to Japan and new market entry into Saudi Arabia support long-term demand for processed wheat products. Mixed global wheat futures: CBOT March wheat eased 0.49% while MATIF milling wheat was unchanged, signaling broadly adequate global supply. Black Sea exports steady but uneven: Russian wheat shipments remained…

Bearish: Russian grade 4 wheat prices in the European part fell to RUB 13,050/ton ($165/ton), the lowest level in 18 months amid oversupply. Bearish: January wheat exports from Russian ports are 46% below the five-year average, highlighting weak external demand. Bearish: Logistics bottlenecks and slow rail movement are trapping grain inland, intensifying price pressure in…

Competitive pricing: Jordan secured 60,000 tons of milling wheat at $261.25/ton C&F, the lowest bid among four global traders. Partial volume awarded: Only half of the planned 120,000-ton tender was purchased, signaling cautious demand. Benchmark for April: The winning price sets a reference level for regional wheat valuations for April 2026 shipment. Neutral to slightly…

Black Sea wheat prices firmed: Russian 12.5% protein wheat rose to $227.50/ton FOB and Ukrainian 11.5% to $227/ton on strong demand and constrained supply. Export flows pressured by weather: Russian January exports are still projected at 2.8–3.0 MMT, but port disruptions have forced analysts to trim earlier forecasts. Domestic Russian prices supported by cheaper freight:…

Algeria Tender Secured: OAIC booked 600,000–720,000 tons of milling wheat at $253–$254/ton C&F, with Argentine origin expected to dominate. Russian Prices Under Pressure: Russian wheat producer prices fell 10.2% YoY to 12,142 rubles/ton in November 2025, making wheat the cheapest major grain domestically. Logistics Advantage: February 2026 shipment slots for South American origins put Black…

French wheat: March MATIF milling wheat edged up 0.17% to $221.83/t in thin holiday trading, while May remained flat. Corn strength: March MATIF corn gained 0.95% to $224.73/t, with June corn holding slightly below at €192.75/t. Oilseeds mixed: SAFEX March sunflower seed fell 2.73% to 9,618 ZAR/t (45,690 RUB/t), while sunflower oil stayed firm at…

Kazakhstan wheat export prices: Rose by USD 1–3/t across grades, with Grade 5 reaching USD 208–212/t DAP Saryagash. Domestic price divergence: Lower-grade wheat gained 1,000 tenge/t while premium Grade 3 wheat lost 2,000 tenge/t. Exports accelerating: Extended transport subsidies to 2026 and stronger demand from Central Asia and Transcaucasus are boosting shipments. Farmer selling pressure…