Category: Wheat

Neutral for global prices: India authorizes 3 MMT of wheat and processed grain exports, but high offer levels limit export execution. Bearish for Black Sea competitors: Indian wheat’s $80/tonne premium over Argentine and cheaper Black Sea origins keeps India largely non-competitive. Supportive for Indian farmers: Policy aims to stabilize domestic prices and maintain farm profitability…

Bearish: Russia’s 2026/27 wheat harvest forecast was raised to 91 million tons, increasing projected export availability to 47.5 million tons. Bearish: Kazakhstan’s wheat stocks are robust at 13.96 million tons, supporting regional supply and limiting upside price momentum. Neutral: Production and export outlooks remain preliminary and subject to weather and geopolitical risks that could tighten…

Bullish: Ukrainian food wheat prices rose USD 1-2/t amid tightening supply, stronger export demand, and reduced competition from Russian exports. Bearish: Higher prices have not yet encouraged significant farmer selling, limiting nearby supply response and potentially increasing volatility. Ukrainian Wheat Market Update Ukrainian food wheat prices in key ports extended their gains as of February…

February surge: Rusagrotrans raised February 2025 wheat export forecast to 3.4 million tons, up 125,000 tons and 64% above February 2024. Season lagging: July–January exports total 29.7 million tons, still 8% below last season’s pace. Buyer reshuffle: Turkey and Iran sharply increased purchases, while Egypt and Bangladesh scaled back, signaling shifting demand and rising competition.…

Bullish: USDA cut global wheat stocks below expectations, while Russian export demand from Turkey and Iran remains strong despite logistics issues. Bearish: Black Sea port congestion, oversupplied global grain markets, and aggressive competition from Argentina cap upside for international wheat prices. Global Wheat Market Overview Global grain markets were mixed as the USDA’s February WASDE…

USDA raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 44 million tonnes, reinforcing its role as the top global exporter. EU wheat export outlook was cut to 31.5 million tonnes, signaling tighter European export availability. Russia’s feed grain export forecast increased to 7.33 million tonnes, supporting strong Black Sea grain export flows. Russian intervention price cuts…

Key Takeaways Jordan’s MIT purchased 120,000 tonnes of milling wheat at $264.50/tonne C&F for May shipment, confirming steady MENA demand but at disciplined price levels. French soft winter wheat area for the 2026 harvest increased 2.8% year-on-year to 4.6 million hectares, with overall winter grains and rapeseed also expanding. Favorable French and wider EU winter…

Russian wheat exports up 18%: Shipments reached 2.8 million tons in January 2026, supporting a mildly bullish tone for Black Sea wheat. Broader grain exports up 6%: Total Russian grain and processed products exceeded 4.5 million tons, underscoring resilient external demand. Ukrainian prices firming: Port prices for milling and feed wheat rose USD 2–4 per…

Trade Resumption: Brazil imported $10.9 million of Russian wheat in January 2025, sharply up from $1.1 million in December 2024. Supplier Rankings: Argentina led Brazil’s wheat imports at $70.9 million, with Uruguay, Paraguay, and Russia also supplying. Market Signal: The tenfold monthly increase in Russian wheat flows is neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea…

Kazakhstan holds 20 million tonnes of grain stocks as of January 1, 2026, with wheat accounting for 16.25 million tonnes. About 88% of wheat stocks are food-grade, supporting both domestic milling demand and export potential. Three northern regions (Akmola, North Kazakhstan, Kostanay) control 80% of total grain reserves, reinforcing traditional export corridors. Wheat exports reached…