Category: Wheat

Bullish: Limited export availability from key origins and ongoing logistical bottlenecks are underpinning prices despite weak demand. Bearish: Slow import demand in key destinations and buyer resistance to higher offers are capping any significant price rally. Global Wheat Market Overview International wheat markets are trading in a relatively narrow range as exporters balance tighter nearby…

Forecast Upgrade: SovEcon raised Russia’s 2026 wheat harvest outlook to 87.6 million tons, up 1.7 million tons from the previous estimate. Winter Wheat Strength: Winter wheat projections increased to 64.6 million tons on higher acreage and better yield expectations, while spring wheat remains at 23 million tons. Weather Risk: Rostov Region faces below-average soil moisture,…

Record exports: Kazakhstan’s Grain Union now projects total wheat and flour exports at a record 13 million tonnes for 2025/26 MY, with wheat alone seen at 7.8 million tonnes. Front‑loaded shipments: Wheat exports have already reached 5.14 million tonnes in the first five months—around 66% of the full‑season target—signaling an aggressive early export pace. Market…

Forward demand: Ukrainian traders are actively contracting 2026 wheat at relatively strong price levels, supporting early farmer hedging. Price structure: New-crop forward prices sit only slightly below old-crop levels, signaling tight supply expectations and stable export demand. Risk management: Farmers are locking in values above USD 210/ton to secure revenue amid geopolitical and corridor-related risks.…

Russia hits 12-month high: February wheat shipments to South Korea reached 48,700 tonnes, with corn at 51,400 tons, both the strongest volumes since February 2024. Stronger market position: Russia climbed to third place among South Korea’s wheat and corn suppliers, highlighting competitive pricing and stable logistics from the Black Sea region. Growing Asian footprint: Combined…

Domestic supply support: 14,900 tons of milling wheat released to Kazakh millers helps stabilize internal flour and grain markets. Quality-focused allocation: Third-class wheat with 23% gluten dominates sales, ensuring adequate supply for flour producers. Strong feed demand: Poultry farms requested about 200,000 tons of grain, signaling robust domestic feed consumption. Neutral-to-slightly bearish for exports: Higher…

Tender Result: Jordan’s MIT purchased 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat at $277.50/tonne C&F, half of the 120,000-tonne target volume. Price Competitiveness: CHS won the tender with the lowest bid, undercutting rivals by $0.90–$7.50 per tonne across a tight offer range. Logistics Window: Shipment is scheduled for June 1–15 delivery to Aqaba port, providing a benchmark…

Russian wheat inflows surge: Kazakhstan imported 395,700 tons of Russian wheat in the first five months of 2025/26 MY, a 41-fold jump from 9,500 tons a year earlier. Currency-driven advantage: Weakness of the Russian ruble against the Kazakh tenge is making Russian wheat highly competitive for Kazakh processors. Shifting Black Sea trade flows: Increased Kazakhstan…

Brazil wheat output seen at five-year low: 2026/27 harvest projected around 6.86–6.9 million tonnes, down roughly 12% year-on-year. Acreage contraction: Sown area expected to fall 5.2–15.5% amid weak margins, higher nitrogen fertilizer costs, and competition from alternative crops. Weather risk: Potential El Niño in late 2026 raises concerns about excessive rainfall and quality losses during…

Policy shift: Russia reinstates a wheat export duty of 135.4 rubles/tonne from March 18 after a nine-week suspension. Mixed price signals: Wheat prices hold steady at $231.5/tonne, while barley and corn indicative prices edge lower. Competitiveness impact: The renewed wheat duty is mildly bearish for Russian export competitiveness versus other Black Sea origins. Russia Reinstates…