Category: Wheat

Trade Resumption: Kazakhstan shipped over 15,000 tons of wheat to Vietnam in 2025, its first wheat export to the country in eight years. Logistics Upgrade: New multimodal logistics without container reloading cuts delivery time and costs for shipments to Southeast Asia. Diversification Drive: Kazakhstan plans to expand exports to Vietnam beyond wheat to flour, meat…

EU durum wheat production is set to decline due to reduced planting area and high fertilizer costs, opening space for Kazakhstani exporters. Global durum ending stocks are forecast to surge 21% in 2025/26 MY, led by a 202% y/y jump in Canadian stocks, pressuring prices. Black Sea producers (Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkey) saw 10–20% production declines…

Bullish: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB prices for February delivery climbed to $231/MT, a two-month high, signaling firm international demand. Bearish: Rusagrotrans slightly downgraded January export expectations to 2.7 million tons, pointing to logistical constraints or slower shipment pace. Mixed: Domestic prices are largely stable to weaker, especially in the Volga region, supporting export competitiveness…

Policy Shift: Russia proposes lower wheat intervention price thresholds for 2026/27, signaling expectations of ample supply and less downside price support for producers. Grain Mix Divergence: Rye intervention prices are set to rise while barley remains unchanged, highlighting differing supply-demand dynamics across grains. Market Impact: Lower wheat thresholds are neutral to slightly bearish for Russian…

Bearish EU exports: European Commission cuts 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast by 1.5 million tonnes to 29.5 million tonnes amid stronger Argentine competition, lifting projected EU ending stocks. Supportive for Black Sea flows: Novorossiysk wheat loadings in January 2026 rise 9.8% year-on-year, underscoring steady Black Sea export presence despite a month-on-month slowdown. Stable production outlook:…

Bearish: Kazakhstan’s durum wheat exports dropped 54% year-on-year to 46,100 tons in September–December 2025, with Italian demand collapsing 85%. Neutral: Turkey has become the leading buyer with 21,600 tons, partially offsetting losses in traditional EU markets. Neutral to Bearish: Export recovery hinges on transport subsidies from January 2026 to support the Grain Union’s 300,000-ton full-year…

Zero export duty extended: Russia will maintain zero export duties on wheat, barley, and corn for February 3–10, 2026, preserving competitiveness in global markets. Indicative prices edge higher: Wheat, barley, and corn indicative prices all posted small week-on-week gains, signaling modest demand strength. Neutral to slightly bullish tone: Continued duty-free exports support steady Black Sea…

Ukrainian feed wheat: Prices rose UAH 100-200/t week-on-week to UAH 8,600-9,900/t CPT on stronger trader demand and support from corn. U.S. wheat futures: Chicago contracts gained 6.6% in January, their largest monthly rise in two years, on dollar weakness and earlier frost concerns. Russian exports: First 47,700 t wheat shipment to Cameroon expands Russia’s African…

Kazakhstan–Ethiopia corridor: Ongoing talks position Kazakhstan as a strategic wheat and fertilizer supplier into Ethiopia and broader East Africa. U.S. futures firmer: Chicago SRW wheat closed at $198.96/MT (+1.03%), with HRW and HRS also higher on January 29, 2026. Black Sea price edge: Russian and Ukrainian wheat at $223–227 FOB remains $5–6/MT below key European…

Neutral: Canada’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast raised to 28.6 million tonnes, keeping global supplies well covered. Slightly Bearish for Black Sea: Strong Canadian export pace and steady 2026/27 export projections signal ongoing competition in key import markets. Stocks Drawdown: Exports remain elevated despite a projected 5 million tonne production decline, implying reduced stockpiles rather than…