Category: Wheat

Trade Resumption: Brazil imported $10.9 million of Russian wheat in January 2025, sharply up from $1.1 million in December 2024. Supplier Rankings: Argentina led Brazil’s wheat imports at $70.9 million, with Uruguay, Paraguay, and Russia also supplying. Market Signal: The tenfold monthly increase in Russian wheat flows is neutral to slightly bullish for Black Sea…

Kazakhstan holds 20 million tonnes of grain stocks as of January 1, 2026, with wheat accounting for 16.25 million tonnes. About 88% of wheat stocks are food-grade, supporting both domestic milling demand and export potential. Three northern regions (Akmola, North Kazakhstan, Kostanay) control 80% of total grain reserves, reinforcing traditional export corridors. Wheat exports reached…

Wheat stocks higher: Kazakhstan’s wheat reserves rose 3.2% year-on-year to 16.25 million tons, reinforcing ample domestic supply and export capacity. Food wheat dominance: Food wheat accounts for 14.3 million tons, or 88% of total wheat stocks, supporting strong milling and export programs. Mixed grain dynamics: Overall grain and legume stocks increased to 20 million tons,…

Neutral: Russian wheat, barley, and corn export duties remain at zero for February 11–17, 2026, sustaining Russia’s competitive export position without altering current trade incentives. Mixed price action: Indicative wheat prices are broadly steady, while barley shows a sharp increase and corn eases, hinting at shifting domestic supply-demand balances across feed grains. Stable crop outlook:…

Ukrainian wheat acreage projected to decline 5% year-on-year to just under 5 million hectares in 2026. Barley area in Ukraine expected to fall sharply by 21% to 1.1 million hectares, tightening feed grain supplies. Corn acreage seen rising 3% to 4.7 million hectares, partially offsetting reduced wheat and barley areas. Uzbekistan–Pakistan hybrid wheat project targets…

Tighter Black Sea supply risk: Ukrainian wheat acreage is projected to fall 5% in 2026 to just under 5 million hectares, potentially tightening export availability. Shift in crop mix: Barley area is seen down 21% while corn is up 3%, driving a 4% overall decline in Ukrainian grain acreage to 11.5 million hectares. Central Asian…

Kazakhstan Winter Wheat Freeze Damage Update Localized damage: Kazhydromet reports 2–9% winter wheat losses in parts of Zhambyl and West Kazakhstan as of January 20. Worst-hit districts: Shu and Kordai in Zhambyl show 7–9% damage; Baiterek in West Kazakhstan reports 8% losses. Stable core regions: Turkestan and Zhetisu regions report good crop conditions with no…

Export surge: Russian wheat exports for February 2024 are forecast at 3.3 million tons, up 59% year-on-year from 2.07 million tons. Back to normal levels: Projected exports are in line with the five-year February average of 3.27 million tons, signaling normalized Black Sea flows. Bearish for prices: Strong export momentum and ample Black Sea supply…

Key Takeaways Prices edge higher: Ukrainian grade 3 milling wheat export prices rose USD 1–3/ton after a prolonged period of stability. Port quotations strengthen: Greater Odessa ports quote USD 208–216/ton CPT, Danube ports USD 207–214/ton CPT as of February 4, 2026. Stronger MENA demand: Increased buying interest from Egypt and Turkey supported the uptick. Reduced…

Bullish: February wheat exports are forecast to jump 59% year-on-year to 3.3 million tons amid pre-quota positioning, supporting five-month high Russian FOB prices at $235/t. Bearish: July–January wheat exports are still down 13% year-on-year due to stronger competition from the EU, Australia, and Argentina, which could cap gains once the quota-driven surge fades. Russian Wheat…