Category: Wheat

Global prices ease: Benchmark wheat grades across Russia, the US, EU, Ukraine, Romania, and Argentina all declined on abundant supply. Demand risks: China canceled 132,000 tons of US wheat purchases, reinforcing bearish market sentiment. Supply boost: Argentina’s harvest forecast rose to 27.1 million tons, with yields up 51% year-on-year. Stable Black Sea competitiveness: Russian and…

Bearish for Black Sea Wheat: Argentina’s record 27.1–27.7 MMT wheat crop and aggressive FOB offers at $206–209/ton for January delivery are undercutting Black Sea, French, and U.S. origins. Neutral to Bullish for Russian Logistics: Russia’s National Commodity Exchange is launching a new wheat spot trading platform with priority rail access to Novorossiysk, potentially strengthening export…

Export Pace: Russia shipped 26.6 million tonnes of wheat in July–December, above the five-year average but 8.5% below last season’s record, signaling solid yet moderating export momentum. Price Pressure: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB values eased to $227–228/t amid abundant global supplies and weaker competing origins, creating a neutral to slightly bearish price backdrop. Global…

Bullish: Russian winter and spring wheat acreage continues to contract, threatening exportable supply and supporting global wheat prices into 2026/27. Bearish Offset: Higher winter wheat plantings in Ukraine and France may partially counterbalance Russian output declines if yields and logistics remain stable. Structural: Russian farm profitability has dropped 62% since 2021, suggesting continued acreage pressure…

Key Takeaways Policy Shift: Azerbaijan plans to raise domestic food wheat production from 20% to 50% of its 1.8 million tons annual demand over the coming years. Import Dependence: The country currently imports around 1.62 million tons of wheat annually, with Russia supplying approximately 90% of total imports. Gradual Timeline: Despite self-sufficiency goals, wheat import…

Russia will reinstate a wheat export duty of 109.1 rubles/tonne from December 24, ending a two-week zero-duty period. Barley and corn export duties remain at zero through December 30, preserving their price competitiveness. The wheat indicative price is steady at $227.0/tonne, signaling stable demand despite the duty adjustment. The new duty adds an estimated ~$1.10/tonne…

Policy Shift: Russia reinstates a wheat export duty of 109.1 rubles/ton for December 24–30, while keeping barley and corn duties at zero. Export Mix: Zero duties on barley and corn enhance the competitiveness of Russian feed grain exports versus wheat. Quality Profile: Moscow Region wheat is dominated by Class 4 (48.4%) with solid protein and…

EU soft wheat output projected to fall 6.2% to 128.3 mln t in 2026/27, down 8.5 mln t from 2025/26. Barley production seen dropping 8.3% to 52.1 mln t on weaker yields across member states. Corn production bucking the trend, rising 3.4% to 58.5 mln t (+1.9 mln t year-on-year). Bullish for Black Sea wheat…

Flat pricing outlook: Russian class 4 wheat is currently around 15,100 rubles/ton (ex-VAT) at ports, with similar levels expected in early 2026 amid ample global supplies. Global oversupply: Argentina’s record wheat harvest and strong export program are contributing to a glut that caps upside for international wheat prices. Quality advantage: Poor quality in Argentine wheat…

Key Takeaways China cancellation: China canceled a 132,000-tonne purchase of US white wheat, originally reported on November 20. Price competition: Argentine wheat is reportedly offered at more competitive prices, likely contributing to the shift away from US supplies. Futures under pressure: CBOT wheat futures fell to their lowest level since October 23 on December 17,…