Category: Wheat

Policy Shift: Russia reinstates a wheat export duty of 109.1 rubles/ton for December 24–30, while keeping barley and corn duties at zero. Export Mix: Zero duties on barley and corn enhance the competitiveness of Russian feed grain exports versus wheat. Quality Profile: Moscow Region wheat is dominated by Class 4 (48.4%) with solid protein and…

EU soft wheat output projected to fall 6.2% to 128.3 mln t in 2026/27, down 8.5 mln t from 2025/26. Barley production seen dropping 8.3% to 52.1 mln t on weaker yields across member states. Corn production bucking the trend, rising 3.4% to 58.5 mln t (+1.9 mln t year-on-year). Bullish for Black Sea wheat…

Flat pricing outlook: Russian class 4 wheat is currently around 15,100 rubles/ton (ex-VAT) at ports, with similar levels expected in early 2026 amid ample global supplies. Global oversupply: Argentina’s record wheat harvest and strong export program are contributing to a glut that caps upside for international wheat prices. Quality advantage: Poor quality in Argentine wheat…

Key Takeaways China cancellation: China canceled a 132,000-tonne purchase of US white wheat, originally reported on November 20. Price competition: Argentine wheat is reportedly offered at more competitive prices, likely contributing to the shift away from US supplies. Futures under pressure: CBOT wheat futures fell to their lowest level since October 23 on December 17,…

Bearish: Ukrainian milling wheat prices declined by USD 2–4/ton across major ports to USD 208–216/ton CPT amid weak demand. Bearish: Ongoing infrastructure and energy disruptions are curbing export activity and pushing some grain companies to suspend procurement. Bearish: Competitive pricing for US wheat in Asian tenders is limiting upside potential for Black Sea origins. Ukrainian…

Bearish: Ukrainian wheat prices declined across domestic and export markets, with feed wheat under sharper pressure than milling wheat. Bearish: Port prices for both milling and feed wheat slipped by USD 1–2/t, reflecting weaker export demand and ample supply. Bearish: Power outages are constraining production capacity and may further limit near‑term domestic demand despite ongoing processor…

Wheat under pressure: U.S. and European wheat futures fell (CBOT March SRW -1.6% to $191.34/t), though U.S. wheat exports remain 21.9% above last year, signaling resilient global demand. Corn export strength: U.S. corn futures slipped only modestly, while exports for 2025/26 surged 68.74% year-over-year to 22.5 million tonnes, tightening competition for Black Sea origins. Oilseeds…

Production Shock: Kyrgyzstan’s 2025 wheat output fell 26% year-on-year amid weaker yields, with total grain production down 15%. Yield Deterioration: Average grain yields dropped to 30 c/ha from 35.8 c/ha, driven by poorer performance in the key Chui and Talas regions. Barley Under Pressure: Barley production declined 26% to 474,000 tons, with yields sliding to…

Trade Resumption: China has booked its first Argentine wheat cargo in around 30 years via state-owned Cofco International. Competitive Supply: Record Argentine harvest and lower export duties to 7.5% are making its wheat among the cheapest globally. Market Impact: Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat as Argentina competes more aggressively in Asian destinations,…

Stable exports: Weekly wheat loadings at Novorossiysk eased just 2.8% to 449.7 thousand tons, signaling steady Black Sea export flows. Diversified demand: Oman, Sudan, and Turkey each took more than 60 thousand tons, highlighting broad MENA regional demand. Neutral sentiment: A minor volume decline and continued robust shipments keep overall market sentiment neutral for now.…