Category: Wheat

Key Takeaways Zero Export Duties Extended: Russia will maintain zero export duties on wheat, barley, and corn for shipments from February 23 (or February 25, per secondary source) through March 3, 2026. Moderate Price Increases: Indicative prices used for duty calculations rose slightly for wheat (to $229.9/ton) and more notably for corn (to $207.0/ton), while…

Stronger Russian presence: Wheat exports from Russia to Georgia rose 21% year-on-year in January to $5.7 million, reinforcing Russia’s role as Georgia’s primary supplier. Short-term slowdown: Despite annual growth, January wheat shipments fell 1.9 times versus December, indicating seasonal or logistical softness in near-term flows. Concentrated import risk: Georgia’s wheat imports remain heavily reliant on…

U.S. wheat futures rallied with March CBOT soft red winter wheat up 2.29% to $205.58/ton on February 19, 2026. USDA projects 2026 U.S. wheat plantings at 45 million acres, with production estimated at 1.86 billion bushels and yields at 50.8 bushels/acre. Global wheat stocks tightened slightly to 282 million tonnes, still 19 million tonnes above…

Prices Firming: Ukrainian milling wheat export prices rose by USD 1-2/t week-on-week as of February 19 on tight farmer supply. Port Differentials: Greater Odessa ports quoted USD 213-219/t CPT, while Danube ports stood at USD 211-218/t CPT, reflecting strong export demand. Supportive Fundamentals: Limited farmer selling, active exports, domestic processor competition, and weather concerns are…

Prices Rising: Ukrainian milling wheat seen moving from $215–220/tonne CPT-port to $220–225/tonne by early March on tight supply and strong trader demand. Supply Squeeze: Producers are holding back sales while traders are contracting actively, supporting steady weekly gains of $1–2/tonne. Weather Risk: Ice crust formation after a cold snap threatens winter wheat and rapeseed, adding…

Bullish: Russia and Iran are negotiating large-scale wheat supplies under a joint food security program, reinforcing demand for Black Sea wheat amid rising export prices. Bullish: Russian wheat exports for 2025/26 are projected at 56.2 million tons, up 12.4% from 50 million tons last season, tightening global supply balance. Bullish: Weather disruptions at southern Russian…

Forecast divergence: SovEcon maintains a conservative 2026 Russian wheat harvest estimate of 85.9 million tons, rejecting market talk of 91 million tons as unrealistic. Area constraints: No growth in wheat acreage and continued decline in spring wheat plantings limit upside to production unless near-record yields are repeated. Export implications: The 5.1 million ton gap between…

Bullish: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB prices climbed to $233/MT for late-March delivery as storms and ice continue to disrupt Black Sea and Azov Sea logistics. Bullish: February wheat export forecasts were revised higher to 3.1–3.4 MMT, signaling resilient demand despite ongoing shipment constraints. Bullish: Tight near-term availability and constrained port operations are likely to…

Bullish wheat: Wheat acreage in East Kazakhstan to rise to 163,000 ha, supporting higher grain output underpinned by strong state subsidies. Bullish sunoil: Sunflower area to fall to 235,800 ha, signaling potentially tighter Kazakhstan sunoil supply and support for Black Sea prices. Supportive policy: 4.1 billion tenge in subsidies and fully secured seed supply create…

Bearish wheat complex: Russian wheat producer prices dropped 14.7% year-on-year in December 2025 to 12,098 rubles/ton, signaling margin pressure for farmers. Feed grains under pressure: Corn, barley, and oats all declined, reinforcing a broadly weak pricing environment across major cereals. Specialty grains diverge: Millet, buckwheat, and rye recorded notable gains, highlighting distinct supply-demand drivers versus…