Category: Wheat

Export Outlook Raised: SovEcon lifted Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 45.7 million tonnes, up 1.1 million tonnes from its prior estimate and 12% above last season. Shipments at Multi‑Year Highs: November exports hit a record 5.2 million tonnes and December reached 4.2 million tonnes, the strongest December volume in eight years. Quota Seen as…

Ukrainian milling wheat prices held steady at USD 206–214/t CPT port, with feed wheat at USD 198–208/t CPT port. Farmer reluctance to sell and firm consumer demand supported prices despite weak trader interest. Frequent power outages and reduced production capacity limited upside and added operational risk. Domestic prices remained stable, with second-class wheat at UAH…

Logistics boost: Novorossiysk wheat loadings jumped 74% week-on-week to 278.2 thousand tons, signaling improved port performance and solid demand from North Africa. Demand concentration: Egypt and Sudan absorbed 64.7% of weekly wheat shipments, underscoring the port’s heavy reliance on North African buyers. Rising competition: Record Canadian wheat output and higher export forecasts are increasing competition…

Bullish Wheat: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB prices have risen to $228–230/tonne for the second consecutive week amid severe Black Sea port weather disruptions and downgraded January export estimates. Mixed Vegetable Oils: Sunflower oil prices show divergence across agencies and have printed a new Black Sea minimum, while export duty has increased, tempering downside for…

U.S. wheat exports surge: Weekly sales hit 618,076 MT, the highest in nine weeks and triple last year’s volume, as winter storms disrupt operations. Futures rally across grains: CBOT March wheat climbed 2.72% to $194.55/ton, while corn and soybeans posted multi-year and marketing-year export highs. Weather and logistics risk: Severe snowstorms in key U.S. production…

Policy: Russia will keep export duties on wheat, barley, and corn at 0% from January 28 through February 3, 2026. Exports: The zero-duty regime supports continued competitiveness of Black Sea grain in global markets. Risk: Weekly reviews mean traders face ongoing policy uncertainty and potential rapid changes in export economics. Russia Extends Zero Export Duties…

Bearish wheat sentiment: Australia is projected to harvest 37 million tonnes of wheat in 2025-26, boosting export availability and intensifying price competition in Asia. Record barley output: Barley production is expected to reach a record 15.5 million tonnes, significantly above the 10-year average, adding further global feed grain supply. Export surge: Wheat exports are forecast…

Russian wheat, barley, and corn export duties remain at zero through February 3, extending cost support for exporters. Indicative wheat prices eased to $226.3/ton, signaling softer demand despite policy support. Russian grain exports fell 17.6% y/y in July–December 2025, with the buyer base shrinking from 69 to 49 countries. Guinea’s interest in Russian wheat offers…

Bearish wheat: Australia’s 37 MMT wheat crop (+34% vs 10-year average) and 27 MMT exports in 2025/26 add significant export competition. Bearish barley: Record 15.5 MMT barley crop and 8.6 MMT exports intensify pressure on Black Sea barley values in shared Asian and MENA markets. Global spreads at risk: Higher Australian availability could compress global…

Prices Stable: Ukrainian class 3 milling wheat export prices held steady at $206-214/t CPT Greater Odessa and $206-212/t CPT Danube ports as of January 22, 2026. Weak Demand: Low trading activity persists due to reduced competitiveness of Ukrainian wheat in international markets. Mild Pressure: Some exporters trimmed purchase prices after covering earlier export commitments, keeping…