Category: Wheat

Bullish: Russian 12.5% protein wheat FOB prices for February delivery climbed to $231/MT, a two-month high, signaling firm international demand. Bearish: Rusagrotrans slightly downgraded January export expectations to 2.7 million tons, pointing to logistical constraints or slower shipment pace. Mixed: Domestic prices are largely stable to weaker, especially in the Volga region, supporting export competitiveness…

Policy Shift: Russia proposes lower wheat intervention price thresholds for 2026/27, signaling expectations of ample supply and less downside price support for producers. Grain Mix Divergence: Rye intervention prices are set to rise while barley remains unchanged, highlighting differing supply-demand dynamics across grains. Market Impact: Lower wheat thresholds are neutral to slightly bearish for Russian…

Bearish EU exports: European Commission cuts 2025/26 soft wheat export forecast by 1.5 million tonnes to 29.5 million tonnes amid stronger Argentine competition, lifting projected EU ending stocks. Supportive for Black Sea flows: Novorossiysk wheat loadings in January 2026 rise 9.8% year-on-year, underscoring steady Black Sea export presence despite a month-on-month slowdown. Stable production outlook:…

Bearish: Kazakhstan’s durum wheat exports dropped 54% year-on-year to 46,100 tons in September–December 2025, with Italian demand collapsing 85%. Neutral: Turkey has become the leading buyer with 21,600 tons, partially offsetting losses in traditional EU markets. Neutral to Bearish: Export recovery hinges on transport subsidies from January 2026 to support the Grain Union’s 300,000-ton full-year…

Zero export duty extended: Russia will maintain zero export duties on wheat, barley, and corn for February 3–10, 2026, preserving competitiveness in global markets. Indicative prices edge higher: Wheat, barley, and corn indicative prices all posted small week-on-week gains, signaling modest demand strength. Neutral to slightly bullish tone: Continued duty-free exports support steady Black Sea…

Ukrainian feed wheat: Prices rose UAH 100-200/t week-on-week to UAH 8,600-9,900/t CPT on stronger trader demand and support from corn. U.S. wheat futures: Chicago contracts gained 6.6% in January, their largest monthly rise in two years, on dollar weakness and earlier frost concerns. Russian exports: First 47,700 t wheat shipment to Cameroon expands Russia’s African…

Kazakhstan–Ethiopia corridor: Ongoing talks position Kazakhstan as a strategic wheat and fertilizer supplier into Ethiopia and broader East Africa. U.S. futures firmer: Chicago SRW wheat closed at $198.96/MT (+1.03%), with HRW and HRS also higher on January 29, 2026. Black Sea price edge: Russian and Ukrainian wheat at $223–227 FOB remains $5–6/MT below key European…

Neutral: Canada’s 2025/26 wheat export forecast raised to 28.6 million tonnes, keeping global supplies well covered. Slightly Bearish for Black Sea: Strong Canadian export pace and steady 2026/27 export projections signal ongoing competition in key import markets. Stocks Drawdown: Exports remain elevated despite a projected 5 million tonne production decline, implying reduced stockpiles rather than…

Kazakhstan imports raised: 2025/26 wheat import forecast increased by 400,000 tons to 1.0 million tons. Russian dominance: Around 100% of Kazakhstan’s wheat imports are expected to come from Russia. Strong early-season imports: Kazakhstan already imported 168,900 tons of wheat in September–November 2025. Exports also rising: Wheat and flour export forecast lifted from 12.1 to 12.55…

Bullish: Strong Chinese demand for feed meal is lifting Kazakhstan’s lower-grade wheat prices and creating a price floor despite adequate regional supply. Bearish: Falling flour prices in Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Tajikistan are pressuring margins and limiting the ability of Central Asian buyers to match higher Kazakh wheat offers. Kazakhstan Wheat Market Imbalance A pronounced price…