Category: Wheat

Bearish – Ukrainian prices: Milling wheat values at deep-sea and Danube ports are falling amid weak importer demand, logistics disruptions, and competition from cheaper feed wheat. Bearish – Global supply: Heavy Russian exports, strong Australian output, and a record harvest expected in Argentina are amplifying downward pressure on Ukrainian wheat prices. Bearish – Competitive quality:…

Ukrainian wheat stable: Prices are holding around $220/t CPT for milling wheat despite muted export activity. Potential Q1 2025 rally: Analysts see scope for Ukrainian wheat to rise to $245–255/t CPT on stronger seasonal demand. Kazakh price floor: Food Corporation’s 2025 procurement prices set a benchmark for wheat, barley, and oilseeds in the region. Neutral-to-bullish…

New Trade Flow: Kazakhstan exported 390,000 MT of wheat to Algeria between January and November 2025, a sharp increase from negligible volumes in prior years. State Support: Government freight subsidies and diplomatic engagement underpinned the competitiveness of Kazakh wheat into North Africa. Market Impact: The entry of Kazakhstan into Algeria, a 9 MMT/year importer, adds…

South Korea’s NOFI secured around 65,000 mt of feed wheat for delivery by April 2026 in an international tender. The tender explicitly excluded Russian, Argentine, Pakistani, Danish, and Chinese origins, signaling targeted supply-chain de-risking. The $261.65/t C&F price (plus $1.30/t unloading) acts as a long‑dated benchmark but is expected to have minimal impact on current…

Ukrainian wheat prices moved within a previously established range, reflecting mixed but contained market signals. Sufficient grain supply contrasts with uneven demand, as some buyers raised bids for large volumes while overall trader interest stayed muted. CPT-port bids held steady, with Class 2 milling wheat at $215–223/t and feed wheat at $208–216/t, indicating a broadly…

Bullish: Fresh import demand from Algeria’s international tender supports global wheat prices, especially for Black Sea origins. Bearish: The EU’s larger soft wheat harvest and higher export forecast increase export competition and pressure prices lower. Trade Flows: Reduced EU wheat import needs limit potential outlets for exporters targeting the bloc. Market Update Algeria’s state grain…

Bearish supply signal: Novorossiysk wheat loadings surged to 2.44 MMT in November, reinforcing abundant Russian export availability. Strong regional demand: Iran, Egypt, and Turkey led buying, highlighting persistent MENA demand for competitively priced Russian wheat. Price pressure on rivals: Robust Black Sea logistics and aggressive Russian exports continue to weigh on alternative origins and global…

Russian dominance: Russia’s share of Israel’s wheat imports has surged to 89% in 2024/25 from 39% in 2020/21, cementing its role as the key supplier and price-setter. Stable demand growth: USDA projects Israel’s wheat imports to rise to 2.15 million tons in 2025/26, supporting sustained demand for Russian exports. Pressure on rivals: Romanian and Ukrainian…

Key Takeaways Bearish Pressure: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) raised its 2025/26 Argentine wheat production forecast by 1.5 MMT to a record 25.5 MMT, adding significant export competition to global markets. Price Reaction: Paris (MATIF) December milling wheat futures fell to €187.25/t ($217.15/t), while Chicago (CBOT) December SRW wheat in a shortened session closed…

Neutral: Kazakhstan–Kuwait talks are at an early stage with no confirmed tenders or volumes, leaving near-term Black Sea wheat pricing largely unchanged. Structural: A potential long-term supply channel to Kuwait would diversify Kazakh grain exports and create a new, consistent Gulf demand center. Strategic: Any future Kazakh flows to Kuwait could redirect volumes away from…