Category: Wheat

Supportive: Uzbekistan to raise total cotton and grain support to 34.2 trillion soums in 2026, bolstering domestic wheat production. Neutral: Despite higher subsidies and digitalization, the overall impact on Black Sea wheat trade is expected to remain limited. Structural: Shift to a credit rating-based loan system and digital “Agrosubsidia” platform aims to improve financial discipline…

Bearish – Ukraine: Wheat export prices at ports fell by USD 3–4/tonne amid softer external demand, with milling wheat at USD 212–220/tonne and feed wheat at USD 204–212/tonne CPT-port. Neutral – Domestic Ukraine: Internal wheat prices in UAH remained broadly stable, supported by processor demand and high logistics costs despite weaker export momentum. Neutral –…

Bearish domestic trend: Russian producer wheat prices fell 5.3% year-on-year to RUB 12,293/MT, with key export regions like Southern Russia seeing notable declines. Export strength: December wheat exports are forecast at 4.3 million MT, above last year and the five-year average, with 900,000 MT already shipped in the first eight days. Competitive FOB pricing: Russian…

Bullish: Russia eliminates wheat export duty and offers higher food-grade share, improving price competitiveness versus lower-protein Southern Hemisphere wheat. Bearish: Large harvests in Argentina and Australia, weaker Chinese demand for Russian wheat, and lower Novorossiysk loadings weigh on global price sentiment. Russia Removes Wheat Export Duty The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has reduced the wheat…

Bullish: Expectations for slightly tighter U.S. wheat ending stocks in the upcoming USDA WASDE report could offer support to global wheat prices. Bearish: Strong French wheat crop conditions and a record Canadian canola harvest forecast are adding competitive pressure and weighing on futures. Neutral: Markets are largely in a holding pattern as traders await key…

Bearish wheat & corn: Russian export duties for wheat, corn, and barley are set to zero for December 10–16, increasing competitive Black Sea supply. Price pressure: Falling indicative prices for wheat and corn below the base level trigger zero duty, adding short-term downward pressure on global grain prices. Export incentive: Removal of the tax allows…

Bearish for Black Sea wheat: Thailand’s tender explicitly excludes Russian and Ukrainian origins, removing a key demand outlet. Steady demand for alternative origins: 240,000 tonnes of feed wheat secured on optional-origin terms, supporting exporters outside Russia, Ukraine, Brazil, and Pakistan. Forward demand visibility: Shipments scheduled across H1 2026 provide longer-term demand support for non-excluded suppliers.…

Russian 12.5% protein wheat export prices have eased to $228–230/t FOB, their lowest level since mid-September. Growing competition from large expected wheat harvests in Australia and Argentina is pressuring global export prices lower. Slow farmer selling and relatively tight global wheat reserves are limiting further downside in international prices. Russian Wheat Prices Weaken on Southern…

Neutral: Forward purchase of 30,300 tonnes of US milling wheat by South Korean millers for February 2026 delivery provides long-term price signals but limited short-term market impact. Reference Pricing: FOB values between $243 and $277 per ton give a benchmark for future high-protein wheat pricing versus other origins. Steady Demand: The deal highlights ongoing, structural…

Algeria’s OAIC purchased around 900,000 tons of milling wheat in a major international tender. The deal was concluded at $255–256 per ton C&F, setting a fresh benchmark for upcoming tenders. Delivery is scheduled for February 2026 for Black Sea/European wheat and January 2026 for South American/Australian origins. Bullish: Large forward demand from a key North…