Category: Wheat

Policy: Russia will keep export duties on wheat, barley, and corn at 0% from January 28 through February 3, 2026. Exports: The zero-duty regime supports continued competitiveness of Black Sea grain in global markets. Risk: Weekly reviews mean traders face ongoing policy uncertainty and potential rapid changes in export economics. Russia Extends Zero Export Duties…

Bearish wheat sentiment: Australia is projected to harvest 37 million tonnes of wheat in 2025-26, boosting export availability and intensifying price competition in Asia. Record barley output: Barley production is expected to reach a record 15.5 million tonnes, significantly above the 10-year average, adding further global feed grain supply. Export surge: Wheat exports are forecast…

Russian wheat, barley, and corn export duties remain at zero through February 3, extending cost support for exporters. Indicative wheat prices eased to $226.3/ton, signaling softer demand despite policy support. Russian grain exports fell 17.6% y/y in July–December 2025, with the buyer base shrinking from 69 to 49 countries. Guinea’s interest in Russian wheat offers…

Bearish wheat: Australia’s 37 MMT wheat crop (+34% vs 10-year average) and 27 MMT exports in 2025/26 add significant export competition. Bearish barley: Record 15.5 MMT barley crop and 8.6 MMT exports intensify pressure on Black Sea barley values in shared Asian and MENA markets. Global spreads at risk: Higher Australian availability could compress global…

Prices Stable: Ukrainian class 3 milling wheat export prices held steady at $206-214/t CPT Greater Odessa and $206-212/t CPT Danube ports as of January 22, 2026. Weak Demand: Low trading activity persists due to reduced competitiveness of Ukrainian wheat in international markets. Mild Pressure: Some exporters trimmed purchase prices after covering earlier export commitments, keeping…

Yields Plateaued: Northwestern European wheat yields have stagnated around 7 t/ha since the mid-1990s despite higher genetic and climate potential. Farm Management Bottleneck: Fertilization, plant protection, and tillage practices are the main constraints on yield growth, not climate or varietal limits. Climate a Net Positive: Climate change has contributed an additional 26–60 kg/ha per year…

Kazakhstan expands value-added wheat exports: First wheat gluten shipment to Japan and new market entry into Saudi Arabia support long-term demand for processed wheat products. Mixed global wheat futures: CBOT March wheat eased 0.49% while MATIF milling wheat was unchanged, signaling broadly adequate global supply. Black Sea exports steady but uneven: Russian wheat shipments remained…

Bearish: Russian grade 4 wheat prices in the European part fell to RUB 13,050/ton ($165/ton), the lowest level in 18 months amid oversupply. Bearish: January wheat exports from Russian ports are 46% below the five-year average, highlighting weak external demand. Bearish: Logistics bottlenecks and slow rail movement are trapping grain inland, intensifying price pressure in…

Competitive pricing: Jordan secured 60,000 tons of milling wheat at $261.25/ton C&F, the lowest bid among four global traders. Partial volume awarded: Only half of the planned 120,000-ton tender was purchased, signaling cautious demand. Benchmark for April: The winning price sets a reference level for regional wheat valuations for April 2026 shipment. Neutral to slightly…

Black Sea wheat prices firmed: Russian 12.5% protein wheat rose to $227.50/ton FOB and Ukrainian 11.5% to $227/ton on strong demand and constrained supply. Export flows pressured by weather: Russian January exports are still projected at 2.8–3.0 MMT, but port disruptions have forced analysts to trim earlier forecasts. Domestic Russian prices supported by cheaper freight:…