Category: Wheat

Bullish: Weather-related production risks in the Black Sea and US wheat belt, combined with recovering import demand, are supportive for Ukrainian wheat prices. Bearish: Ongoing military risks and port infrastructure disruptions in Ukraine continue to constrain export flows and limit near-term shipment volumes. Market Update Ukrainian wheat exports remained muted in December as security risks…

Production upgrade: USDA FAS raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat harvest forecast to 89.5 million tons (from 87.5 million), with carryover stocks up to 14.688 million tons. Exports steady: Wheat export forecast held at 44 million tons despite larger crop, below IKAR’s 46 million ton potential including Crimea. Near-term pressure: January shipments expected to slow on holidays,…

Domestic prices eased: Ukrainian feed and second-grade wheat prices weakened in early January amid subdued local demand and infrastructure disruptions. Export prices resilient: Port-based feed wheat prices firmed slightly, while milling wheat values remained stable, reflecting continued international interest. Logistics under pressure: Ongoing power outages and shelling of port infrastructure constrained operations and reduced trader…

USDA lifts global wheat output: 2025/26 global wheat production raised by 4.36 million tonnes to 842.17 million tonnes, led by larger Russian and Argentine crops. Exports edge higher: Global wheat exports forecast up to 219.76 million tonnes, with stronger Argentine shipments offsetting cuts to EU and Ukraine. Stocks build: Global ending stocks increased by 3.38…

Forecast Upgrade: SovEcon raised Russia’s 2025/26 wheat export outlook to 44.6 million tons on strong demand and better export economics. Record Sales: November wheat shipments hit an all-time high of 5.1 million tons as buyers returned after delaying purchases. Improved Margins: Export margins turned slightly positive as domestic prices fell while FOB values held near…

Wheat & corn supported: U.S. export commitments are running well ahead of last year, tightening global exportable supplies and providing a neutral to slightly bullish backdrop for Black Sea wheat and corn values. Soybeans lagging: U.S. soybean exports are only 64% of USDA targets versus an 82% average pace, keeping oilseed sentiment more cautious despite…

Strong crop outlook: 11,500 hectares of winter wheat in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions are overwintering well with uniform stands and vibrant green growth. Low weather risk so far: No signs of frost damage or critical plant stress reported during winter dormancy in key northern Ukrainian regions. Technology-driven productivity: Recent investments in Fendt and Horsch…

Hryvnia prices rise: Milling and feed wheat bids at Greater Odesa ports climbed to UAH 10,000-10,600/tonne (CRT) as the currency weakened. Dollar prices steady: USD-denominated bids for Ukrainian wheat held in the USD 206-216/tonne range, preserving export competitiveness. Logistics pressure: Overloaded networks, port restrictions, and higher tariffs from Russian attacks are lifting domestic cost bases.…

Neutral: Jordan secured 60,000 tonnes of milling wheat at $260/tonne C&F, setting a competitive price benchmark for April delivery. Neutral: Only half of the planned 120,000 tonnes was purchased, signaling either price sensitivity or a staggered procurement strategy. Neutral: Tight bid spread of less than $5/tonne among five major traders highlights ample global wheat supply…

Bullish (Rapeseed): February rapeseed futures jumped 2.4% to €462.75/tonne on bargain buying after December’s 16‑month low and supply concerns following damage to Bunge’s Dnipro vegetable oil plant. Bearish (Wheat): March Euronext wheat eased 0.5% to €188.25/tonne under pressure from abundant global supplies and increased Argentine export competition. Market Overview Euronext wheat futures slipped on January…