Category: Soybeans

Record Processing: Ukraine targets all-time high processing of 3 million tons of soybeans (60% of crop) and 1.7 million tons of rapeseed (50% of harvest) in 2025/26. Export Revenues Rising: Soybean oil output and exports grew over 22% year-on-year, with foreign exchange earnings from soybean and rapeseed oil up 1.5–2.2 times. Policy-Driven Shift: Export duties…

Bullish (Soybean Oil): CBOT soybean oil futures rallied 2.2% to six‑month highs on expectations of stronger Indian demand after the India‑US agricultural trade framework and support from renewed US biodiesel tax incentives. Bearish (Soybean Meal): Chinese soybean meal prices fell nearly 2% amid temporarily high inventories and pressure from Brazil’s bumper soybean harvest, despite fresh…

Bearish soybeans: Brazil’s record 180 million tonne crop and slow farmer selling keep export supply heavy through Q2, pressuring CBOT futures. Argentine risk: Moisture stress and poor rainfall since early February threaten to trim Argentina’s soybean output toward 45–48 million tonnes. Regional impact: South American export dominance and ample pipeline supply reduce competitiveness for Black Sea soybean…

Russia turns net soybean exporter: Record 2025 crop of 8.96–9.5 million tonnes flipped the trade balance as imports plunged and exports outpaced incoming volumes. Domestic processing expands: Soybean oil output rose 7.4% to 1.18 million tonnes and meal production grew 8.8% to 5.07 million tonnes on stronger local supply. Import demand collapses: Russian soybean imports fell 50–66% year-on-year…

Inventories Surge: US soybean oil stocks climbed to 988,000 tonnes by end-December, a 22% rise since the season start and the highest level in 19 months. Demand Softens: Soybean oil consumption fell to 12.2 million tonnes in 2025 from 12.4 million tonnes a year earlier amid persistent biofuels sector weakness. Crushing at Record Pace: Record…

Strategic pivot: China is shifting its soybean policy from expanding planted area to boosting yield and quality through technology and mechanization. Import diversification: Beijing aims to reduce reliance on traditional suppliers like the US and Canada by broadening agricultural import partners, especially in the Global South. Record grain output: China’s total grain production is forecast…

Odesa-based soybean exporter uncovered evading UAH 18.7 million in taxes on exports to Turkey, Romania, and the UAE. Roughly 10,500 tons of soybeans with undocumented origin, valued at UAH 104 million, were exported via intermediary companies. Case signals tighter oversight and documentation requirements for Black Sea soybean exports, with neutral immediate price impact but higher…

Bearish US soybeans: Chinese private crushers favor Brazilian supplies due to a 10-percentage-point tariff advantage (13% vs 3%), limiting commercial demand for US origins. Supportive for Brazilian exports: Record projected Brazilian production of 182.2 million tonnes underpins aggressive forward sales and competitive pricing into China. Neutral to bearish for Black Sea protein complex: Cheaper Brazilian soybeans…

Neutral to Bearish Black Sea Sunflower Oil: China’s rising soybean oil exports intensify competition in key Asian vegetable oil markets, weighing on Black Sea sunflower oil demand. Structural Shift in Trade Flows: Surplus Chinese soybean oil, driven by overbuilt crushing capacity and slowing domestic demand, is reshaping global oilseed and vegoil trade patterns. Support from…

Neutral to Bearish Black Sea spreads: Russia’s 11% YoY growth in soybean oil exports to MENA and 43% revenue share may pressure FOB Black Sea vegetable oil premiums. Supportive demand in MENA: Broad-based buying from Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel underpins stable regional demand for Russian soybean oil. Stronger Russian export footing:…