Category: Soybeans

Export growth: Russian soybean oil exports to MENA reached nearly $290 million in 2025, up 11% year-on-year. Market share: MENA accounted for 43% of total Russian soybean oil export revenue, underscoring the region’s strategic importance. Key buyers: Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel were the top five destination markets. Price tone: Neutral to…

Bullish: Strong global demand pushed U.S. soybean complex exports up 13% year-on-year to 68.7 million metric tons, with record soybean meal and a 304% surge in soybean oil shipments. Bearish: Competitive U.S. pricing and expanding presence in key importers like Turkey and Egypt add neutral-to-slightly bearish pressure on Black Sea soybean exporters. U.S. Soybean Export…

Bearish exports: Indian soybean meal shipments fell 37.5% y/y in December 2025 to 173,000 tonnes amid weaker demand from key buyers. Uncompetitive pricing: Higher Indian prices versus US, Brazilian, and Argentine meal reduced price competitiveness in global markets. Regional shifts: UAE, Iran, Nepal, and Bangladesh remain core buyers but are trimming volumes and potentially diversifying…

Neutral/Bearish Black Sea soybeans: South American competition intensifies as Brazil expands soybean meal exports 10.7% y/y and captures larger shares of China’s soybean complex demand. Supportive crush margins: Elevated Brazilian FOB soybean meal prices at $321.78/t and strong Chinese buying may underpin global crush demand, providing some offset to origin-premium pressure. Chinese demand reshuffling: Record…

Capacity boost: Vietnam Agribusiness has doubled its soybean processing capability to 7,800 tonnes per day with a $100 million second crushing line. Domestic coverage: The plant will supply around 2 million tonnes of soybean meal annually, covering roughly 30% of Vietnam’s feed protein demand. Trade flow impact: Expanded Vietnamese demand will likely favor South American…

Surging Russian yields: Record 20.2 c/ha (+20.8% y/y) and strong Central Federal District performance significantly expand Black Sea soybean exportable supply. Weaker EU demand: EU soybean imports down 14% to 6.61 M tonnes in 2025/26 MY as domestic output and processing rise, curbing external buying needs. Bearish price pressure: Growing supply amid softening EU import…

Bullish US–China trade: China completed 12 MMT of US soybean purchases and is expected to buy 25 MMT annually through 2028, supporting US export demand. Bearish Brazil & Black Sea: Brazilian exports to China are projected to fall 10 MMT YoY to 77 MMT, increasing price competition and pressure on alternative origins, including Black Sea…

Neutral to Bearish: Expanding Russian soybean meal production and higher domestic absorption support local supply but add to regional pricing pressure. Bearish: A 14% drop in EU-27 soybean imports and Ukraine’s shrinking market share intensify competition for limited demand. Bearish: Brazil’s record harvest, rising crushing, and a 241% surge in ending stocks point to heavier…

Bullish Brazil: January soybean exports projected at a record 3.73 million tonnes, supported by strong Chinese demand and 7 million tonnes of carryover stocks. Bearish Black Sea: Intensified competition from Brazilian beans pressures Black Sea-origin soy and sunmeal, capping crush margins and narrowing the window of opportunity before Brazil’s new-crop flows ramp up. Brazil’s Record January Soybean…

Export Decline: Global soybean oil exports from seven key suppliers are projected to fall by 0.4–0.5 million tonnes in Q1 2026 versus a year earlier. Argentina Weakness: Argentine Q1 2026 exports are forecast to drop to 1.3 million tonnes from 1.5 million tonnes amid slower processing ahead of the new harvest. China’s Export Surge: China…