Category: Soybeans

Bearish: U.S. soybean industry warns new tariffs on China could repeat past trade war losses of $27 billion and further undermine U.S. export competitiveness. Bearish: Record global soybean stocks projected at 124–125 million tonnes in 2025/26 and a massive South American harvest are expected to pressure soybean meal prices. Neutral to Supportive: Tightening vegetable oil…

Bearish Black Sea imports: Russia’s 2025 soybean crop is forecast up nearly 30% to as high as 9.3 million tons, slashing import needs and weighing on regional import demand. Bullish export potential: Strong production gains in Amur, Primorsky, Tambov, Belgorod, and Kursk could reposition Russia as a net soybean/meal exporter into Asian, European, and Middle…

Key Takeaways Ukrainian soybean exports reached approximately 200,000 tons by December 15, with shipment activity expected to slow toward month-end. Port quotations stabilized in the $422-427/mt range, showing slight weakness following a broader global price correction. Domestic processors remain active and competitive buyers, with favorable crushing margins helping to support local soybean prices. Market sentiment…

Compliance Risk: Ukrainian authorities seized 7,500 tons of soybeans linked to forged export documentation, signaling tighter enforcement. Logistics Impact: Short-term logistical uncertainty at Odesa port as inspections and document checks intensify. Market Scope: Seized volume exceeds UAH 103 million (~USD 2.5 million) but represents a modest share of Ukraine’s soybean export capacity. Trade Flows: Blocked…

Structural shift: Goldman Sachs projects China could cut soybean import dependency from 90% to 30% by 2034. Demand reduction: Chinese oilseed consumption has already declined by 15 million tons between 2021–2024. Feed reformulation: Lower soybean meal inclusion and efficiency gains in feed processing are curbing import needs. Domestic substitution: Expansion of high-protein corn cultivation aims…

Bullish: Ukrainian soybean export prices climbed to USD 420–428/t CPT port on tight domestic supply and strong competition among buyers. Bearish: Global soybean prices remain pressured by weak Chinese demand for US soy, lower Argentine export duties, and strong Brazilian crop prospects. Neutral: Soybean meal export price growth has stalled as demand slows, keeping values…

Bearish US & Black Sea: Brazil’s soybean export potential is projected to jump to 115 million tons in 2026, reinforcing its dominance and eroding market share for competing origins. Bearish Prices: Expanded Brazilian production to 178 million tons and higher carryover stocks of 7–8 million tons are likely to pressure international soybean prices. Export Momentum:…

Brazilian exports slump: Soybean oil exports fell 41% year-on-year to 153,000 tonnes in Sep–Nov 2024, hitting multi-year lows. Biofuel demand surges: The B15 biodiesel mandate is driving domestic soybean oil use, with around 6.5 million tonnes projected for biodiesel in 2025. Tight export balance: Limited output growth of only 0.4 million tonnes caps export potential…

Bullish South America: Brazil and Argentina sharply increased soybean exports to China, capturing greater global market share. Bearish US & Black Sea: US soybean exports slumped over 50% year-on-year, while increased South American supply pressures global oilseed prices and weighs on Black Sea competitiveness. South American Soybean Export Surge South American exporters strengthened their hold…

Bearish (Imports): Russian soybean imports fell 63% year-on-year in September–November 2025 to just 0.15 million tons as record domestic output reduced external demand. Structural Shift: A record 9.4–9.5 million ton domestic soybean harvest has effectively eliminated Russia’s reliance on Brazilian supplies and reshaped internal logistics. Global Demand Support: China imported 8.11 million tons of soybeans…