Category: Soybeans

Bearish US soybeans: Chinese private crushers favor Brazilian supplies due to a 10-percentage-point tariff advantage (13% vs 3%), limiting commercial demand for US origins. Supportive for Brazilian exports: Record projected Brazilian production of 182.2 million tonnes underpins aggressive forward sales and competitive pricing into China. Neutral to bearish for Black Sea protein complex: Cheaper Brazilian soybeans…

Neutral to Bearish Black Sea Sunflower Oil: China’s rising soybean oil exports intensify competition in key Asian vegetable oil markets, weighing on Black Sea sunflower oil demand. Structural Shift in Trade Flows: Surplus Chinese soybean oil, driven by overbuilt crushing capacity and slowing domestic demand, is reshaping global oilseed and vegoil trade patterns. Support from…

Neutral to Bearish Black Sea spreads: Russia’s 11% YoY growth in soybean oil exports to MENA and 43% revenue share may pressure FOB Black Sea vegetable oil premiums. Supportive demand in MENA: Broad-based buying from Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel underpins stable regional demand for Russian soybean oil. Stronger Russian export footing:…

Export growth: Total US soybean product exports rose 13% year-on-year to 68.7 million tonnes, valued at $29.6 billion. Product mix shift: Soybean oil exports surged 304% to 1.1 million tonnes; soybean meal exports hit a record 16.3 million tonnes (+14%). Demand drivers: Strong global demand, improved market access, and enhanced US price competitiveness underpinned the…

Harvest Progress: Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean harvest is 2% complete as of January 15, slightly ahead of last year, with crops in key states rated good to excellent. Record Production Outlook: Forecasts range from 176.1–179.3 million tonnes, with Safras&Mercado holding the most bullish estimate at 179.3 million tonnes. Crushing Capacity Growth: Domestic soybean crushing is projected…

Export Surge: U.S. soybean complex exports climbed 13% in 2024/25 to 68.7 MMT, with total export value reaching $29.6 billion. Record Meal & Oil: Soybean meal exports hit a record 16.3 MMT (+14%), while soybean oil exports jumped 304% to 1.1 MMT, led by Indian demand. Shifting Trade Flows: Rapid growth in U.S. soybean meal…

Export growth: Russian soybean oil exports to MENA reached nearly $290 million in 2025, up 11% year-on-year. Market share: MENA accounted for 43% of total Russian soybean oil export revenue, underscoring the region’s strategic importance. Key buyers: Algeria, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Israel were the top five destination markets. Price tone: Neutral to…

Bullish: Strong global demand pushed U.S. soybean complex exports up 13% year-on-year to 68.7 million metric tons, with record soybean meal and a 304% surge in soybean oil shipments. Bearish: Competitive U.S. pricing and expanding presence in key importers like Turkey and Egypt add neutral-to-slightly bearish pressure on Black Sea soybean exporters. U.S. Soybean Export…

Bearish exports: Indian soybean meal shipments fell 37.5% y/y in December 2025 to 173,000 tonnes amid weaker demand from key buyers. Uncompetitive pricing: Higher Indian prices versus US, Brazilian, and Argentine meal reduced price competitiveness in global markets. Regional shifts: UAE, Iran, Nepal, and Bangladesh remain core buyers but are trimming volumes and potentially diversifying…

Neutral/Bearish Black Sea soybeans: South American competition intensifies as Brazil expands soybean meal exports 10.7% y/y and captures larger shares of China’s soybean complex demand. Supportive crush margins: Elevated Brazilian FOB soybean meal prices at $321.78/t and strong Chinese buying may underpin global crush demand, providing some offset to origin-premium pressure. Chinese demand reshuffling: Record…